Office briefing
SANTA ISABEL / AZUAY — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · SANTA ISABEL / AZUAY / AZUAY · municipal · MayorEC-M-1-285
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- SANTA ISABEL / AZUAY / AZUAY
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-6529c1183950cd21fffbd185
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- FUERZA COLECTIVA49.6%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR27.7%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO11.7%
- MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN5.6%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA3.6%
- SANTA ISABEL PRIMERO1.1%
- AZUAY YA0.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUERZA COLECTIVA · ANABEL LALVAY | 1282ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,127 | 49.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR · ERNESTO GUERRERO | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,422 | 27.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO · ABEL ARPI BERMEO | 39ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,443 | 11.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN · EDUARDO TAPIA | 215ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 689 | 5.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · ROCIO MOLINA ALVARADO | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 443 | 3.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| SANTA ISABEL PRIMERO · VERONICA IÑIGUEZ | 1054ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 130 | 1.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| AZUAY YA · MONICA DORIZ TORRES OCHOA | 1115ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 108 | 0.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA UNIDAD POR EL CAMBIO25.5%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK17.7%
- MOVIMIENTO TODOS SOMOS PUEBLO14.4%
- ALIANZA MPD LIBERTAD/PARTICIPA/JUNTOS PODEMOS11.6%
- ALIANZA AZUAY EL FUTURO QUE SOÑAMOS11.0%
- ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO9.0%
- ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y ALIANZA PAIS6.0%
- MOVIMIENTO ASI3.1%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1.0%
- ALIANZA JUSTICIA CON CONCIENCIA CIUDADANA0.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA UNIDAD POR EL CAMBIO · ERNESTO GUERRERO | 677ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 3,432 | 25.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · ABEL ARPI | 12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,376 | 17.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO TODOS SOMOS PUEBLO · GUILLERMO GUANGA | 217ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,942 | 14.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA MPD LIBERTAD/PARTICIPA/JUNTOS PODEMOS · MONICA DORIZ TORRES OCHOA | 576ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,554 | 11.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA AZUAY EL FUTURO QUE SOÑAMOS · ISIDRO ASTUDILLO OCHOA | 748ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,482 | 11% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO · GUIDO ORELLANA | 560ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,206 | 9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y ALIANZA PAIS · EFREN LEON | 706ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 812 | 6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ASI · JOSE TACURI | 213ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 416 | 3.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO · DIEGO ARTEAGA | 1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 136 | 1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| ALIANZA JUSTICIA CON CONCIENCIA CIUDADANA · JESUS SALVADOR MENDOZA BERMEO | 750ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 86 | 0.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- ALIANZA SANTA ISABEL MPD - PARTICIPA LISTAS 15-6237.6%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS32.1%
- PARTIDO AVANZA22.1%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7.0%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA1.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA SANTA ISABEL MPD - PARTICIPA LISTAS 15-62 · QUEZADA RAMON MANUEL RODRIGO | 1010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 4,417 | 37.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · AGUIRRE MAURA LUCIO WASHINGTON | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,763 | 32.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA · ORELLANA ALVARADO GUIDO GERARDO | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,593 | 22.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK · LALVAY GUAMAN MANUEL ANSELMO | 5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 816 | 7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA · BERMEO CALLE SEGUNDO MOISES | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 152 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI19.790–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=21.88157256107426, oldest_gap=5.570224001362746, previous_gap=7.855973813420622
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[1.011754203243565,0,17.6759410801964,0,0,0,81.31230471656004],[0,22.085001277574314,6.950004258581041,0,1.2946086364023508,32.05008091303978,37.620304914402524]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility55.43percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[1.011754203243565,0,17.6759410801964,0,0,0,81.31230471656004],[0,22.085001277574314,6.950004258581041,0,1.2946086364023508,32.05008091303978,37.620304914402524]]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[1.011754203243565,0,17.6759410801964,0,0,0,81.31230471656004],[0,22.085001277574314,6.950004258581041,0,1.2946086364023508,32.05008091303978,37.620304914402524]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 16,750 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 285,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 1,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 16750,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-1-285",
"name": "SANTA ISABEL / AZUAY",
"office": "Mayor",
"precinct_rows": [
247,
248,
249,
250,
251,
252,
253,
254,
255,
256
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “SANTA ISABEL / AZUAY — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-1-285. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.