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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

CUENCA / AZUAY — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · CUENCA / AZUAY / AZUAY · municipal · MayorEC-M-1-260

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
CUENCA / AZUAY / AZUAY
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-a3a3f10f09bed44462d3379c
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ¡ATREVETE! JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO18.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN17.5%
  • HAGÁMOSLO CON SHUNGO16.9%
  • AZUAY YA16.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA14.0%
  • RENACE - PSE5.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES5.3%
  • AZUAY PRIMERO3.3%
  • CONTIGO AVANZA CUENCA Y EL AZUAY2.0%
Results for event-2ee5ab5543e4430be9a19b0d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
¡ATREVETE! JUNTOS POR EL CAMBIO · CRISTIAN EDUARDO ZAMORA MATUTE1430ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202353,85118.6%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACIÓN · PEDRO PALACIOS215ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202350,63817.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
HAGÁMOSLO CON SHUNGO · ADRIAN CASTRO PIEDRA1359ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202349,05016.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AZUAY YA · PAUL ERNESTO CARRASCO CARPIO1115ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202348,59016.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA · ROQUE ORDOÑEZ207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202340,59414%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
RENACE - PSE · OMAR ALVAREZ1404ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202316,3815.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES · VERONICA ABAD208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202315,2795.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
AZUAY PRIMERO · JAIME MORENO1063ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20239,4463.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CONTIGO AVANZA CUENCA Y EL AZUAY · MARIO CASTRO QUEZADA1389ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235,9282%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA AZUAY EL FUTURO QUE SOÑAMOS28.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO CIUDADANO RENACE22.2%
  • ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO19.4%
  • ALIANZA JUNTOS POR EL FUTURO14.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL8.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP1.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONTIGO1.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION1.1%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA0.9%
  • ALIANZA JUSTICIA CON CONCIENCIA CIUDADANA0.8%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.4%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE0.3%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA0.3%
Results for event-5c1418cd526a495d97e5baea
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA AZUAY EL FUTURO QUE SOÑAMOS · PEDRO PALACIOS ULLAURI748ecuador/Sed7b513864/201988,88228.1%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CIUDADANO RENACE · JEFFERSON PEREZ QUEZADA267ecuador/Sed7b513864/201970,33722.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA IGUALDAD-CREO · MARCELO CABRERA PALACIOS560ecuador/Sed7b513864/201961,60719.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA JUNTOS POR EL FUTURO · PAUL CARRASCO556ecuador/Sed7b513864/201946,12314.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL · GUSTAVO JARA148ecuador/Sed7b513864/201927,2428.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP · NORMA ILLARES235ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,4991.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONTIGO · JAIME ASTUDILLO139ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,0731.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION · TARQUINO ORELLANA SERRANO18ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,5071.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA · CESAR PIEDRA25ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,8400.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA JUSTICIA CON CONCIENCIA CIUDADANA · LAURO LOPEZ BUSTAMANTE750ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,3990.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO · JUAN CAMPOVERDE DURAN3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,3600.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE · JAIME RODAS158ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,0170.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA · BRANDON TENESACA51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198960.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-8252.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS43.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO3.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"1.4%
Results for event-f78d344473384b116d6da999
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA "PARTICIPA CON IGUALDAD" LISTAS 62-82 · CABRERA PALACIOS HUGO MARCELO1008ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014144,13652.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS · GRANDA LOPEZ VICTOR PAUL3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014118,23543%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO · CARDOSO SEGARRA ELDA LUCIA8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20148,9673.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO" · CORDERO CORDERO JORGE ALEJANDRO4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,8331.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

83.190–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.108860182842868, oldest_gap=9.412692471226983, previous_gap=5.854183634171132

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,0,3.258700953225449,0,42.96782727831058,53.77347176846398]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,0,3.258700953225449,0,42.96782727831058,53.77347176846398]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,0,3.258700953225449,0,42.96782727831058,53.77347176846398]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-11448,315
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 260,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 1,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 448315,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-M-1-260",
  "name": "CUENCA / AZUAY",
  "office": "Mayor",
  "precinct_rows": [
    25,
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  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “CUENCA / AZUAY — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-M-1-260. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.