Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

YAGUACHI VIEJO/CONE / YAGUACHI / GUAYAS — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · YAGUACHI VIEJO/CONE / YAGUACHI / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · other · Parish boardEC-J-9-395-4275

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
YAGUACHI VIEJO/CONE / YAGUACHI / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-d34cb68c409eceb2ad8c8a86
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA36.4%
  • PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO21.4%
  • YAGUACHI PRIMERO16.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES14.3%
  • JUNTOS POR YAGUACHI7.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO4.0%
Results for event-2ac4ff3b3fcc317e137f33b5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,72136.4%2Recorded
PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,01321.4%1Recorded
YAGUACHI PRIMERO1288ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202379416.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202367714.3%1Recorded
JUNTOS POR YAGUACHI1422ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233337%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231904%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES22.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA16.9%
  • 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO13.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL13.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO6.2%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA4.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL4.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA4.3%
  • ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO3.8%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA3.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS2.8%
  • FUERZA.EC2.3%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR1.6%
Results for event-f6c064e4d092ede215103835
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,09722%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,37016.9%1Recorded
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO534ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,94613.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL148ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,89913.5%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO8ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198686.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196834.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL170ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196514.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA37ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196104.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO607ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195303.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194593.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS142ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193952.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC146ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193172.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR143ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192311.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS41.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO18.8%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA11.8%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO8.9%
  • 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO7.4%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO6.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA5.2%
Results for event-3cf59455607eac410a154893
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,44141.6%3Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,00818.8%1Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,25811.8%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20149518.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20147947.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20146626.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20145525.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-117,541
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 395,
  "cne_parish": 4275,
  "cne_province": 9,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 7541,
  "electors_july": 7541,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-9-395-4275",
  "name": "YAGUACHI VIEJO/CONE / YAGUACHI / GUAYAS",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1866,
    1920
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 33,
  "register_pdf_row": 31,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4524.6
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “YAGUACHI VIEJO/CONE / YAGUACHI / GUAYAS — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-9-395-4275. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.