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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

GALERA / MUISNE / ESMERALDAS — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · GALERA / MUISNE / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS · other · Parish boardEC-J-8-570-1305

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
GALERA / MUISNE / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-39b8e1b91c86b08231b474b3
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO46.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO20.0%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR15.4%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA13.9%
  • UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA4.7%
Results for event-27699dc181ab2a3314246e02
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202341246%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202317920%1Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202313815.4%1Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202312413.9%1Recorded
UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA1270ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023424.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • UNIDAD POPULAR21.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES21.2%
  • ALIANZA VUELVE LA ESPERANZA16.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ10.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION9.3%
  • ALIANZA PLURINACIONAL MUISNEÑA2.9%
  • FUERZA.EC2.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO REACTIVATE1.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO1.3%
Results for event-301bf5da4faae24ada629a26
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDAD POPULAR143ecuador/Sed7b513864/201962421.4%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES22ecuador/Sed7b513864/201961821.2%1Recorded
ALIANZA VUELVE LA ESPERANZA532ecuador/Sed7b513864/201947716.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/201939013.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ198ecuador/Sed7b513864/201929310.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION18ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192719.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA PLURINACIONAL MUISNEÑA530ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019842.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019722.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO REACTIVATE275ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019441.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO3ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019391.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"23.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS22.8%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO14.6%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA12.9%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO10.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK8.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO5.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA1.9%
Results for event-14f3130e45c923f4737a7cb2
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201464723.1%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201463722.8%1Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201440914.6%1Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201436212.9%1Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201430310.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142248%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141635.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014531.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-111,300
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 570,
  "cne_parish": 1305,
  "cne_province": 8,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 1300,
  "electors_july": 1300,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-8-570-1305",
  "name": "GALERA / MUISNE / ESMERALDAS",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1234,
    1250
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 32,
  "register_pdf_row": 14,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4000
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “GALERA / MUISNE / ESMERALDAS — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-8-570-1305. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.