Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

TABIAZO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · TABIAZO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS · other · Parish boardEC-J-8-560-3930

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
TABIAZO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-156e7677bfc62a0615cb1abd
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR37.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO23.2%
  • ESMERALDAS, ES PRIMERO17.5%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA15.2%
  • UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA5.2%
  • VAMOS ESMERALDAS1.3%
Results for event-af056d0bdcb053018a47ec4e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202364437.5%2Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202339823.2%1Recorded
ESMERALDAS, ES PRIMERO1178ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202330117.5%1Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202326015.2%1Recorded
UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA1270ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023905.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VAMOS ESMERALDAS1337ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023231.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA24.2%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR18.6%
  • FUERZA.EC15.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO12.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ8.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP7.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES5.3%
  • ALIANZA PROGRESISTA3.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS1.7%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE1.2%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA0.7%
Results for event-a2eed8594ea5d552d68cc5d4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA25ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,47424.2%2Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR143ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,13618.6%1Recorded
FUERZA.EC146ecuador/Sed7b513864/201995715.7%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/201978412.9%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ198ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195388.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP235ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194327.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193245.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA PROGRESISTA655ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192353.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS142ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191031.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019731.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019450.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO36.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS27.9%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA25.1%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO8.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO2.6%
Results for event-14221d7fd474e6b143c352f3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,85136.1%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,42827.9%2Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,28825.1%1Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144248.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141352.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-112,717
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 560,
  "cne_parish": 3930,
  "cne_province": 8,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 2717,
  "electors_july": 2717,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-8-560-3930",
  "name": "TABIAZO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1303
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 32,
  "register_pdf_row": 9,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4000
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “TABIAZO / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-8-560-3930. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.