Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

MAJUA / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · MAJUA / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS · other · Parish boardEC-J-8-560-2320

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
MAJUA / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-5cef63f71d2bac6e2b630abe
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ESMERALDAS, ES PRIMERO35.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO14.6%
  • UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA13.5%
  • SOMOS ESMERALDAS LISTAS 1 - 2310.7%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR10.4%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA7.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK6.2%
  • VAMOS ESMERALDAS1.4%
Results for event-b0887bbcc3619c422168d673
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ESMERALDAS, ES PRIMERO1178ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202346735.6%2Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202319214.6%1Recorded
UNION POR LA REVOLUCION CIUDADANA1270ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202317713.5%1Recorded
SOMOS ESMERALDAS LISTAS 1 - 231284ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202314110.7%1Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202313710.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023997.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023826.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
VAMOS ESMERALDAS1337ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023181.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • UNIDAD POPULAR25.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO19.7%
  • FUERZA.EC13.1%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA11.6%
  • ALIANZA PROGRESISTA7.4%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA7.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ7.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS5.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES3.0%
Results for event-31c84b0f3a860486fcf30a8c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDAD POPULAR143ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,00725.3%2Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/201978519.7%1Recorded
FUERZA.EC146ecuador/Sed7b513864/201952313.1%1Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA25ecuador/Sed7b513864/201946311.6%1Recorded
ALIANZA PROGRESISTA655ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192967.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192957.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ198ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192847.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS142ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192045.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191213%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PARTIDO AVANZA32.4%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO25.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS22.8%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO11.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO7.5%
Results for event-db18c0995bf349645fa42fd5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,18332.4%2Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201493025.5%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201483222.8%1Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201442911.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142727.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-112,190
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 560,
  "cne_parish": 2320,
  "cne_province": 8,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 2190,
  "electors_july": 2190,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-8-560-2320",
  "name": "MAJUA / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1300
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 32,
  "register_pdf_row": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4000
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “MAJUA / ESMERALDAS / ESMERALDAS — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-8-560-2320. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.