Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

CAPIRO / PIÑAS / EL ORO — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · CAPIRO / PIÑAS / EL ORO / EL ORO · other · Parish boardEC-J-7-370-505

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
CAPIRO / PIÑAS / EL ORO / EL ORO
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-c45c78835073d12dc230c04a
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO SOMOS IGUALDAD, IMPULSO E INTEGRACIÓN SIII25.1%
  • POR PIÑAS Y EL ORO PRIMERO18.1%
  • ALIANZA PIÑAS POR EL CAMBIO 5-77-10517.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYE16.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO11.8%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR11.0%
Results for event-1d99106adaa909e6fe2d8dcc
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SOMOS IGUALDAD, IMPULSO E INTEGRACIÓN SIII170ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202320525.1%1Recorded
POR PIÑAS Y EL ORO PRIMERO1075ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202314818.1%1Recorded
ALIANZA PIÑAS POR EL CAMBIO 5-77-1051253ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202314617.9%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYE18ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202313216.2%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20239611.8%1Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20239011%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL16.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO14.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA14.4%
  • SIII 88 CREO 2112.4%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR11.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO PROGRESO PARA PIÑAS10.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO8.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS5.8%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO5.2%
Results for event-13929f27c9baa59f631ae69a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL147ecuador/Sed7b513864/201945116.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO219ecuador/Sed7b513864/201939914.9%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/201938714.4%1Recorded
SIII 88 CREO 21641ecuador/Sed7b513864/201933312.4%1Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR143ecuador/Sed7b513864/201930311.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PROGRESO PARA PIÑAS102ecuador/Sed7b513864/201928510.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192328.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS142ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191555.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191405.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ALIANZA PAIS-MAR44.6%
  • ALIANZA SOCIALISMO Y PROGRESO PARA PIÑAS32.6%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO11.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO10.9%
Results for event-7ad1665092a6251339a8e365
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PAIS-MAR7007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,26544.6%3Recorded
ALIANZA SOCIALISMO Y PROGRESO PARA PIÑAS7009ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201492432.6%2Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201433611.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201430910.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-111,220
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 370,
  "cne_parish": 505,
  "cne_province": 7,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 1220,
  "electors_july": 1220,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-7-370-505",
  "name": "CAPIRO / PIÑAS / EL ORO",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    901,
    906,
    911,
    912,
    1069
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 30,
  "register_pdf_row": 49,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4000
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “CAPIRO / PIÑAS / EL ORO — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-7-370-505. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.