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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

GUIZHAGUIÑA / ZARUMA / EL ORO — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · GUIZHAGUIÑA / ZARUMA / EL ORO / EL ORO · other · Parish boardEC-J-7-360-1425

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
GUIZHAGUIÑA / ZARUMA / EL ORO / EL ORO
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-0ed1239db36c293da08cf015
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R.19.3%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR18.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO17.7%
  • JUNTOS POR ZARUMA16.5%
  • JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-7715.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ13.0%
Results for event-1cfb094f8052167bcf79b498
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R.147ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202316519.3%1Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202315618.3%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202315117.7%1Recorded
JUNTOS POR ZARUMA1347ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202314116.5%1Recorded
JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-771250ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202313015.2%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202311113%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO27.0%
  • PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA20.5%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR17.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL11.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS10.9%
  • ALIANZA PARTIDO SOCIALISTA DEMOCRACIA SI Y ALIANZA PAIS LISTA 17-20-357.1%
  • FE MAR5.7%
Results for event-1589249ace1659e29f7dd1ea
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/201990927%2Recorded
PARTIDO POLÍTICO AVANZA25ecuador/Sed7b513864/201969220.5%1Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR143ecuador/Sed7b513864/201958717.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL147ecuador/Sed7b513864/201938511.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS142ecuador/Sed7b513864/201936610.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA PARTIDO SOCIALISTA DEMOCRACIA SI Y ALIANZA PAIS LISTA 17-20-35708ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192397.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FE MAR769ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191935.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ALIANZA PAIS-MAR39.7%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA23.7%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO14.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO11.8%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO10.2%
Results for event-7eccc683617501af64382b5e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PAIS-MAR7007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,19339.7%3Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201471123.7%1Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201443614.5%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201435511.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO11ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201430710.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-111,300
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 360,
  "cne_parish": 1425,
  "cne_province": 7,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 1300,
  "electors_july": 1300,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-7-360-1425",
  "name": "GUIZHAGUIÑA / ZARUMA / EL ORO",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    1109
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 31,
  "register_pdf_row": 22,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4000
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “GUIZHAGUIÑA / ZARUMA / EL ORO — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-7-360-1425. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.