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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

SANTA MARTHA DE CUBA / TULCÁN / CARCHI — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · SANTA MARTHA DE CUBA / TULCÁN / CARCHI / CARCHI · other · Parish boardEC-J-4-5-1765

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
SANTA MARTHA DE CUBA / TULCÁN / CARCHI / CARCHI
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-cff622c88e0ba57ca7673122
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO24.6%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA17.8%
  • SOMOS TULCAN14.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYE13.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES11.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA9.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI LISTA63- PARTIDO POLITICO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA9.1%
Results for event-2fbe442feb9fd377120b3991
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202337524.6%1Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA1110ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202327117.8%1Recorded
SOMOS TULCAN1308ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202322114.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONSTRUYE18ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202319913.1%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202317511.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231439.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI LISTA63- PARTIDO POLITICO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA1120ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231399.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA49.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOMOS20.8%
  • ALIANZA MSC CONSERVADORES LISTA 63 -PSC LISTA 615.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13.8%
Results for event-d97c3343c8f2e1ed5b1b4dba
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193,28649.9%3Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOMOS150ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,36820.8%1Recorded
ALIANZA MSC CONSERVADORES LISTA 63 -PSC LISTA 6567ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,01615.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/201991013.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI37.1%
  • ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS-MOVIMIENTO LIDERA CARCHI35.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO INTEGRACION DEMOCRATICA DEL CARCHI27.7%
Results for event-4c19a244c1ea95867907e038
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI4001ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,90437.1%2Recorded
ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS-MOVIMIENTO LIDERA CARCHI4013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,80735.2%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO INTEGRACION DEMOCRATICA DEL CARCHI4003ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,42127.7%1Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-111,904
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 5,
  "cne_parish": 1765,
  "cne_province": 4,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 1904,
  "electors_july": 1904,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-4-5-1765",
  "name": "SANTA MARTHA DE CUBA / TULCÁN / CARCHI",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    527
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 28,
  "register_pdf_row": 30,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4000
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “SANTA MARTHA DE CUBA / TULCÁN / CARCHI — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-4-5-1765. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.