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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

LOS ANDES / BOLÍVAR / CARCHI — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · LOS ANDES / BOLÍVAR / CARCHI / CARCHI · other · Parish boardEC-J-4-25-2205

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
LOS ANDES / BOLÍVAR / CARCHI / CARCHI
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-9f08a7dc6df929f07ba568a8
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • FUERZA ACTIVA BOLIVARENSE30.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI LISTA 63- MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO NACIONAL LISTA 125.0%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA19.1%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA13.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES12.0%
Results for event-edce15cbb79c0435662ec405
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
FUERZA ACTIVA BOLIVARENSE1266ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202345330.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI LISTA 63- MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO NACIONAL LISTA 11122ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202337425%1Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA1110ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202328619.1%1Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202320513.7%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202317912%1Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ALIANZA MSC CONSERVADORES LISTA 63 -PSC LISTA 631.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA21.6%
  • ALIANZA IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA-AVANZA LISTAS 12-820.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ16.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIDERA-CARCHI10.6%
Results for event-d695a32af945c469e59cd3ef
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA MSC CONSERVADORES LISTA 63 -PSC LISTA 6567ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,62231.4%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,11621.6%1Recorded
ALIANZA IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA-AVANZA LISTAS 12-8544ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,03520%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ198ecuador/Sed7b513864/201984616.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIDERA-CARCHI116ecuador/Sed7b513864/201954710.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS-MOVIMIENTO LIDERA CARCHI40.5%
  • ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO INTEGRACION DEMOCRATICA DEL CARCHI, LISTAS 65 Y PARTIDO POLITICO AVANZA, LISTAS 832.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO26.9%
Results for event-fffac903bff71f25f7519a04
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS-MOVIMIENTO LIDERA CARCHI4013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,80540.5%2Recorded
ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO INTEGRACION DEMOCRATICA DEL CARCHI, LISTAS 65 Y PARTIDO POLITICO AVANZA, LISTAS 84012ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,45432.6%2Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,19826.9%1Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-112,019
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 25,
  "cne_parish": 2205,
  "cne_province": 4,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 2019,
  "electors_july": 2019,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-4-25-2205",
  "name": "LOS ANDES / BOLÍVAR / CARCHI",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    503,
    512,
    564
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 28,
  "register_pdf_row": 9,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4000
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “LOS ANDES / BOLÍVAR / CARCHI — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-4-25-2205. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.