Office briefing
SAN RAFAEL / BOLÍVAR / CARCHI — Parish board
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · SAN RAFAEL / BOLÍVAR / CARCHI / CARCHI · other · Parish boardEC-J-4-25-1055
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- SAN RAFAEL / BOLÍVAR / CARCHI / CARCHI
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-0197a48fbd7189077ba78f8d
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI LISTA 63- MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO NACIONAL LISTA 146.5%
- FUERZA ACTIVA BOLIVARENSE15.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES14.8%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA12.2%
- PARTIDO AVANZA10.9%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO SOCIAL CONSERVADOR DEL CARCHI LISTA 63- MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO NACIONAL LISTA 1 | 1122ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 586 | 46.5% | 2 | Recorded |
| FUERZA ACTIVA BOLIVARENSE | 1266ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 198 | 15.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES | 99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 186 | 14.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA | 1110ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 154 | 12.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA | 101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 137 | 10.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- ALIANZA MSC CONSERVADORES LISTA 63 -PSC LISTA 628.3%
- ALIANZA IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA-AVANZA LISTAS 12-827.1%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA19.3%
- MOVIMIENTO LIDERA-CARCHI13.7%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ11.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA MSC CONSERVADORES LISTA 63 -PSC LISTA 6 | 567ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,127 | 28.3% | 2 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA-AVANZA LISTAS 12-8 | 544ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,080 | 27.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 769 | 19.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO LIDERA-CARCHI | 116ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 545 | 13.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 465 | 11.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO INTEGRACION DEMOCRATICA DEL CARCHI, LISTAS 65 Y PARTIDO POLITICO AVANZA, LISTAS 862.4%
- ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS-MOVIMIENTO LIDERA CARCHI37.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO INTEGRACION DEMOCRATICA DEL CARCHI, LISTAS 65 Y PARTIDO POLITICO AVANZA, LISTAS 8 | 4012ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,902 | 62.4% | 3 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS-MOVIMIENTO LIDERA CARCHI | 4013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,144 | 37.6% | 2 | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
WithheldUnknown0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 1,628 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 25,
"cne_parish": 1055,
"cne_province": 4,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electorate_difference": 0,
"electors_august": 1628,
"electors_july": 1628,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-4-25-1055",
"name": "SAN RAFAEL / BOLÍVAR / CARCHI",
"office": "Parish board",
"precinct_rows": [
511,
562
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 28,
"register_pdf_row": 11,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
"spending_limit_usd": 4000
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-3-10-7-2026: signed list of 825 ordinary parish contests and spending limits · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “SAN RAFAEL / BOLÍVAR / CARCHI — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-4-25-1055. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.