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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

MANUEL J. CALLE / LA TRONCAL / CAÑAR — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · MANUEL J. CALLE / LA TRONCAL / CAÑAR / CAÑAR · other · Parish boardEC-J-3-250-2365

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
MANUEL J. CALLE / LA TRONCAL / CAÑAR / CAÑAR
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-b65177f1dd580257217445b6
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • CAÑAR EMPRENDE 5-1734.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES20.0%
  • TRONCALEÑOS UNIDOS POR EL CAMBIO15.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK14.9%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR12.4%
  • UNIDOS POR CAÑAR2.2%
Results for event-0d215b76fbd58f7ffea56574
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
CAÑAR EMPRENDE 5-171306ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202385034.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES99ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202348720%1Recorded
TRONCALEÑOS UNIDOS POR EL CAMBIO1123ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202338515.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202336314.9%1Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202330212.4%1Recorded
UNIDOS POR CAÑAR1153ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023542.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP18.2%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR12.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL11.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO11.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES9.6%
  • LA TRONCAL EMPRENDE9.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO9.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL6.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION4.5%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA3.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO REIVINDICACION TRONCALEÑA2.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACCION SOLIDARIA LA TRONCAL1.9%
Results for event-67ded3561e4912ce92f610f1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP235ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,68818.2%1Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR143ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,15812.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL148ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,06511.5%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,05211.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198919.6%1Recorded
LA TRONCAL EMPRENDE696ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198809.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198519.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL170ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195846.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION18ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194224.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192853.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO REIVINDICACION TRONCALEÑA46ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192422.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ACCION SOLIDARIA LA TRONCAL263ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191751.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS36.2%
  • ALIANZA AVANZA - SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO22.6%
  • ALIANZA CREO - PSP21.0%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO7.2%
  • PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL6.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA6.2%
Results for event-4f6aa4bb2b47bd2d36d14652
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,73836.2%3Recorded
ALIANZA AVANZA - SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO3001ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,70822.6%1Recorded
ALIANZA CREO - PSP3002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,58921%1Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20145467.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL9ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20145186.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144706.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-113,473
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 250,
  "cne_parish": 2365,
  "cne_province": 3,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 3473,
  "electors_july": 3473,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-3-250-2365",
  "name": "MANUEL J. CALLE / LA TRONCAL / CAÑAR",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    432,
    446,
    447
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 28,
  "register_pdf_row": 6,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4000
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “MANUEL J. CALLE / LA TRONCAL / CAÑAR — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-3-250-2365. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.