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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

10 DE AGOSTO / LAGO AGRIO / SUCUMBÍOS — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · 10 DE AGOSTO / LAGO AGRIO / SUCUMBÍOS / SUCUMBÍOS · other · Parish boardEC-J-21-625-4625

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
10 DE AGOSTO / LAGO AGRIO / SUCUMBÍOS / SUCUMBÍOS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-dbde52ede888ecdc6d5e0836
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO ACUERDO CIUDADANO36.4%
  • SUCUMBIOS POR EL CAMBIO28.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA15.3%
  • UNIDOS SOMOS MAS11.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES5.8%
  • UNIDAD NUEVAS OPCIONES3.2%
Results for event-4d980111ad31cd39d46c3da9
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO ACUERDO CIUDADANO119ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202351836.4%2Recorded
SUCUMBIOS POR EL CAMBIO1133ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202339928.1%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202321815.3%1Recorded
UNIDOS SOMOS MAS1362ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202316011.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023825.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD NUEVAS OPCIONES1031ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023453.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • SUMA - ACUERDO CIUDADANO34.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO32.0%
  • UNION LEALTAD Y VICTORIA14.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK LISTAS 18 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 2014.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO3.1%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE2.0%
Results for event-ef64ac6148defadd779ff349
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
SUMA - ACUERDO CIUDADANO619ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,52834.1%2Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,43532%2Recorded
UNION LEALTAD Y VICTORIA739ecuador/Sed7b513864/201964514.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK LISTAS 18 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20695ecuador/Sed7b513864/201964414.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191413.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019912%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ALIANZA PAIS - MUSHUK INTI. LISTAS 35-6146.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"44.9%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA6.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK2.6%
Results for event-763093fbac264a2dc0437648
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA PAIS - MUSHUK INTI. LISTAS 35-6121004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201477346%3Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201475544.9%2Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141106.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014432.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-112,084
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 625,
  "cne_parish": 4625,
  "cne_province": 21,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 2084,
  "electors_july": 2084,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-21-625-4625",
  "name": "10 DE AGOSTO / LAGO AGRIO / SUCUMBÍOS",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3980,
    3996,
    4058,
    4065,
    4079
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 42,
  "register_pdf_row": 26,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 5200
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “10 DE AGOSTO / LAGO AGRIO / SUCUMBÍOS — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-21-625-4625. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.