Office briefing
SAN LORENZO / GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR — Parish board
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · SAN LORENZO / GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR · other · Parish boardEC-J-2-165-3545
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- SAN LORENZO / GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-0caeb94caf8b93f4fc9d0732
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO27.0%
- CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR21.9%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL MAS21.5%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA14.7%
- ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR8.3%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK6.6%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 341 | 27% | 2 | Recorded |
| CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR | 1141ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 276 | 21.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL MAS | 173ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 271 | 21.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 185 | 14.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR | 1084ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 105 | 8.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 83 | 6.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA20.1%
- TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR17.7%
- ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE11.9%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK11.6%
- CENTRO DEMOCRATICO10.6%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA8.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION7.0%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ5.5%
- UNIDOS POR GUARANDA PSP 3 EC UNIDO 45.2%
- MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION NUEVA GENTE EN ACCION MINGA2.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 886 | 20.1% | 1 | Recorded |
| TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR | 548ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 778 | 17.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE | 501ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 522 | 11.9% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK | 12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 510 | 11.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| CENTRO DEMOCRATICO | 145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 465 | 10.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 373 | 8.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION | 18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 310 | 7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 242 | 5.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDOS POR GUARANDA PSP 3 EC UNIDO 4 | 547ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 229 | 5.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION NUEVA GENTE EN ACCION MINGA | 173ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 90 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA25.2%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO23.6%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS16.7%
- MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACIÓN OBRAS SON AMORES16.0%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO12.6%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK6.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 956 | 25.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 894 | 23.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 633 | 16.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACIÓN OBRAS SON AMORES | 2002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 605 | 16% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 479 | 12.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK | 5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 226 | 6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
WithheldUnknown0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 1,797 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 165,
"cne_parish": 3545,
"cne_province": 2,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electorate_difference": 0,
"electors_august": 1797,
"electors_july": 1797,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-2-165-3545",
"name": "SAN LORENZO / GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR",
"office": "Parish board",
"precinct_rows": [
317
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 27,
"register_pdf_row": 16,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
"spending_limit_usd": 4000
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-3-10-7-2026: signed list of 825 ordinary parish contests and spending limits · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “SAN LORENZO / GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-2-165-3545. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.