Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

GUADALUPE / ZAMORA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · GUADALUPE / ZAMORA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE · other · Parish boardEC-J-19-655-1390

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
GUADALUPE / ZAMORA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-c68b704f0359e1316fb22eb7
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • ALIANZA POR EL CAMBIO32.2%
  • COMPROMISO Y PROGRESO27.6%
  • FRENTE DE UNIDAD POR LA EQUIDAD Y LA RENOVACIÓN24.1%
  • UNIDOS EN LA DIVERSIDAD9.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO PRIMERO MI ZAMORA, PRIMIZA6.3%
Results for event-d4c2ee27318771a9748824fd
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA POR EL CAMBIO1066ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202368732.2%2Recorded
COMPROMISO Y PROGRESO1081ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202358927.6%1Recorded
FRENTE DE UNIDAD POR LA EQUIDAD Y LA RENOVACIÓN1468ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202351524.1%1Recorded
UNIDOS EN LA DIVERSIDAD1382ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232109.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PRIMERO MI ZAMORA, PRIMIZA96ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231346.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ALIANZA POR LA DIGNIDAD Y EL DESARROLLO DEL CANTÓN ZAMORA19.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES19.3%
  • ALIANZA UNIDOS POR EL CAMBIO18.8%
  • ALIANZA JUNTOS PODEMOS17.7%
  • ALIANZA UNIDOS POR LA DIVERSIDAD DE ZAMORA15.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION9.2%
Results for event-d01f30a1d2ee3d3ed346291b
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA POR LA DIGNIDAD Y EL DESARROLLO DEL CANTÓN ZAMORA579ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,51119.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,51019.3%1Recorded
ALIANZA UNIDOS POR EL CAMBIO578ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,46818.8%1Recorded
ALIANZA JUNTOS PODEMOS618ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,38417.7%1Recorded
ALIANZA UNIDOS POR LA DIVERSIDAD DE ZAMORA553ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,22615.7%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION18ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197189.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ZAMORA CHINCHIPE RENACE42.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK39.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO PRIMERO MI ZAMORA18.2%
Results for event-cb91d576c0467c23ceb87a99
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ZAMORA CHINCHIPE RENACE19007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,74842.1%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,59939.8%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PRIMERO MI ZAMORA19004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,18818.2%1Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-112,851
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 655,
  "cne_parish": 1390,
  "cne_province": 19,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 2851,
  "electors_july": 2851,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-19-655-1390",
  "name": "GUADALUPE / ZAMORA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3931,
    3937,
    3950,
    3952
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 44,
  "register_pdf_row": 31,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 5200
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “GUADALUPE / ZAMORA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-19-655-1390. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.