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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

NUEVO PARAÍSO / NANGARITZA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · NUEVO PARAÍSO / NANGARITZA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE · other · Parish boardEC-J-19-130-4570

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
NUEVO PARAÍSO / NANGARITZA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-edb0f37c6a174d974b7bf4d1
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MAS PROGRESO Y UNIDAD31.0%
  • EL SOCIALISMO CONSTRUYE29.9%
  • FRENTE DE UNIDAD POR LA EQUIDAD Y LA RENOVACIÓN20.2%
  • UNIDOS POR EL PROGRESO EN LA DIVERSIDAD18.9%
Results for event-613eb4caf3e4fbd55d20589d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MAS PROGRESO Y UNIDAD1260ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202316631%2Recorded
EL SOCIALISMO CONSTRUYE1067ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202316029.9%1Recorded
FRENTE DE UNIDAD POR LA EQUIDAD Y LA RENOVACIÓN1468ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202310820.2%1Recorded
UNIDOS POR EL PROGRESO EN LA DIVERSIDAD1370ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202310118.9%1Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ALIANZA UNIDOS POR EL CAMBIO36.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK32.3%
  • ALIANZA JUNTOS PODEMOS20.4%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA10.4%
Results for event-155092c58734fced6ea4531c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA UNIDOS POR EL CAMBIO578ecuador/Sed7b513864/201960036.9%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK12ecuador/Sed7b513864/201952432.3%2Recorded
ALIANZA JUNTOS PODEMOS618ecuador/Sed7b513864/201933120.4%1Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/201916910.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL DE LAS IZQUIERDAS PACHAKUTIK-MPD33.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO ACCIÓN Y SERVICIO27.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS19.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO19.2%
Results for event-813858fad88d0f5a0bebb804
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL DE LAS IZQUIERDAS PACHAKUTIK-MPD19005ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201438033.5%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ACCIÓN Y SERVICIO19001ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201431327.6%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201422319.7%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201421719.2%1Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-11681
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 130,
  "cne_parish": 4570,
  "cne_province": 19,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 681,
  "electors_july": 681,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-19-130-4570",
  "name": "NUEVO PARAÍSO / NANGARITZA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3877,
    3878,
    3879
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 44,
  "register_pdf_row": 18,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 5200
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “NUEVO PARAÍSO / NANGARITZA / ZAMORA CHINCHIPE — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-19-130-4570. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.