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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

SAN JOSÉ DE AYORA / CAYAMBE / PICHINCHA — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · SAN JOSÉ DE AYORA / CAYAMBE / PICHINCHA / PICHINCHA · other · Parish boardEC-J-17-65-4620

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
SAN JOSÉ DE AYORA / CAYAMBE / PICHINCHA / PICHINCHA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-53904123fcb73cdfa7fa3f9e
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK35.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA26.8%
  • RENACE19.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO9.7%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA8.6%
Results for event-2c9974505d38f36983eae36a
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,73535.1%2Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,32426.8%1Recorded
RENACE1094ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202397319.7%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234809.7%1Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234248.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK33.9%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA15.1%
  • ALIANZA CAYAMBE NOS UNE10.5%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA10.3%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO9.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA6.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO4.5%
  • ALIANZA CREO 21 - COMPROMISO 1094.2%
  • ALIANZA AVANZA 8 - UNIDAD POPULAR 23.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS2.6%
Results for event-5212f5cd5ef1edc02967d365
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195,31433.9%3Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA51ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,36515.1%1Recorded
ALIANZA CAYAMBE NOS UNE570ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,64910.5%1Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,60910.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO145ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,4709.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20199936.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197034.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA CREO 21 - COMPROMISO 109518ecuador/Sed7b513864/20196534.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA AVANZA 8 - UNIDAD POPULAR 2733ecuador/Sed7b513864/20195353.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS142ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194022.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS35.2%
  • ALIANZA PACHAKUTIK-AVANZA26.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO22.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO9.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO VIVE5.8%
Results for event-3d4df3d15eb79a055f8adead
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,73435.2%2Recorded
ALIANZA PACHAKUTIK-AVANZA17013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,58226.6%2Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,07922.9%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,2709.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO VIVE17001ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20147815.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-117,568
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 65,
  "cne_parish": 4620,
  "cne_province": 17,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 7568,
  "electors_july": 7568,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-17-65-4620",
  "name": "SAN JOSÉ DE AYORA / CAYAMBE / PICHINCHA",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    3303
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 40,
  "register_pdf_row": 39,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4540.8
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “SAN JOSÉ DE AYORA / CAYAMBE / PICHINCHA — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-17-65-4620. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.