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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

ATAHUALPA / PEDERNALES / MANABÍ — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · ATAHUALPA / PEDERNALES / MANABÍ / MANABÍ · other · Parish boardEC-J-13-910-785

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
ATAHUALPA / PEDERNALES / MANABÍ / MANABÍ
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-10fbfcb748259953095737b4
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MANABITAMENTE47.9%
  • ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA27.8%
  • RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-7215.7%
  • 1-338.6%
Results for event-ff7c8a991b4a5a192aed7e8d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MANABITAMENTE1079ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202391947.9%3Recorded
ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA1041ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202353427.8%1Recorded
RC - SÍ PODEMOS, LISTAS 5-721378ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202330115.7%1Recorded
1-331387ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231648.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO - MOVIMIENTO MEJOR LISTAS 100 - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS LISTAS 35 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 - MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 - PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANA LISTAS 1736.3%
  • ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 6526.1%
  • ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 729.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP8.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL7.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE ACCIÓN CÍVICA DE HOMBRES Y MUJERES POR EL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD, MACHETE5.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION3.1%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR2.6%
  • FUERZA.EC1.6%
Results for event-8954e5c5775793ccd2f16863
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO - MOVIMIENTO MEJOR LISTAS 100 - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS LISTAS 35 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 - MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 - PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANA LISTAS 17732ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,82336.3%3Recorded
ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 65711ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,31226.1%2Recorded
ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 72673ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194749.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP235ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194168.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL148ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193517%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE ACCIÓN CÍVICA DE HOMBRES Y MUJERES POR EL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD, MACHETE41ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192795.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA GENERACION264ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191553.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR143ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191282.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC146ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019801.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PARTIDO AVANZA48.6%
  • PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6532.9%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO14.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO4.2%
Results for event-43537a13cc9b46d47f42ca46
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,07048.6%3Recorded
PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6513011ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,40032.9%2Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201460814.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141774.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-112,772
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 910,
  "cne_parish": 785,
  "cne_province": 13,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 2772,
  "electors_july": 2772,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-13-910-785",
  "name": "ATAHUALPA / PEDERNALES / MANABÍ",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2764
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 37,
  "register_pdf_row": 28,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4000
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “ATAHUALPA / PEDERNALES / MANABÍ — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-13-910-785. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.