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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

ARQ. SIXTO DURÁN BALLÉN / 24 DE MAYO / MANABÍ — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · ARQ. SIXTO DURÁN BALLÉN / 24 DE MAYO / MANABÍ / MANABÍ · other · Parish boardEC-J-13-460-1570

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
ARQ. SIXTO DURÁN BALLÉN / 24 DE MAYO / MANABÍ / MANABÍ
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-172828f442e5a7a1ab4b6776
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO18.3%
  • 1-3317.3%
  • ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA16.8%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA14.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA10.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO SI PODEMOS9.9%
  • SIEMBRA7.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO GENTE NUEVA (MGN)4.7%
Results for event-344254f1c2b7cd089b70e505
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202332718.3%1Recorded
1-331387ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202330817.3%1Recorded
ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA1041ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202329916.8%1Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202325614.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202319310.8%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SI PODEMOS156ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231769.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SIEMBRA1023ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231417.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO GENTE NUEVA (MGN)202ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023844.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 6525.1%
  • ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 7218.0%
  • ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO - MOVIMIENTO MEJOR LISTAS 100 - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS LISTAS 35 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 - MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 - PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANA LISTAS 1716.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS11.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA10.8%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR10.0%
  • ALIANZA POR EL DESARROLLO DE MANABI - MOVIMIENTO AVANZA LISTAS 8 - PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA LISTAS 12 - MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL LISTA 11 - MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA DE HOMBRE Y MUJERES POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD MACHETE LISTAS 616.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO1.9%
Results for event-9edceee3021fbfb63eb0c3f1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD MANABITA PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO LISTAS 6 - MOVIMIENTO UNIDAD PRIMERO LISTAS 65711ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,41725.1%2Recorded
ALIANZA CREO LISTA 21 - SI PODEMOS LISTA 72673ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,01618%1Recorded
ALIANZA OPORTUNIDAD Y CAMBIO - MOVIMIENTO MEJOR LISTAS 100 - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS LISTAS 35 - MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SI LISTAS 20 - MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO LISTAS 1 - PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANA LISTAS 17732ecuador/Sed7b513864/201995616.9%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS142ecuador/Sed7b513864/201962711.1%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA37ecuador/Sed7b513864/201961110.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR143ecuador/Sed7b513864/201956610%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA POR EL DESARROLLO DE MANABI - MOVIMIENTO AVANZA LISTAS 8 - PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRATICA LISTAS 12 - MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL LISTA 11 - MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION CIVICA DE HOMBRE Y MUJERES POR LA ETICA EL TRABAJO Y LA EQUIDAD MACHETE LISTAS 61803ecuador/Sed7b513864/20193426.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO219ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191101.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA26.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO24.1%
  • PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6518.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO12.0%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO10.6%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA7.8%
Results for event-e7e27f07df93827ada9d069b
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SUMA13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20141,05926.6%2Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201495824.1%2Recorded
PAIS - UNIDAD PRIMERO 35-6513011ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201475218.9%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201447812%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201442310.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143117.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-112,966
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 460,
  "cne_parish": 1570,
  "cne_province": 13,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": 0,
  "electors_august": 2966,
  "electors_july": 2966,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-13-460-1570",
  "name": "ARQ. SIXTO DURÁN BALLÉN / 24 DE MAYO / MANABÍ",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2607
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 36,
  "register_pdf_row": 40,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 4000
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “ARQ. SIXTO DURÁN BALLÉN / 24 DE MAYO / MANABÍ — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-13-460-1570. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.