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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

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Office briefing

SAN PABLO / OTAVALO / IMBABURA — Parish board

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · SAN PABLO / OTAVALO / IMBABURA / IMBABURA · other · Parish boardEC-J-10-35-3590

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 9,964 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 9,963. Both are retained.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
SAN PABLO / OTAVALO / IMBABURA / IMBABURA
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-b0951e6cf34df42e777b468e
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • PARTIDO AVANZA26.0%
  • PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR21.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA18.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK11.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO9.4%
  • MUÉVETE IMBABURA6.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID3.9%
  • OTAVALO SOMOS TODOS3.1%
Results for event-e9fca39ad756ea2931045bcf
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO AVANZA101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,67826%1Recorded
PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,36621.2%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,20618.7%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202371911.1%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO124ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236059.4%1Recorded
MUÉVETE IMBABURA1077ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234356.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO PUEBLO IGUALDAD DEMOCRACIA PID222ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232513.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
OTAVALO SOMOS TODOS1488ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231983.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK22.6%
  • ALIANZA TODOS POR OTAVALO12.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL12.4%
  • ALIANZA UNIDOS POR OTAVALO9.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES8.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ÚNETE, UNIÓN, ÉTICA, TRANSPARENCIA Y EQUIDAD8.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION7.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO COMPROMISO6.7%
  • ALIANZA PAÍS LISTA 35 MINGA LISTA 1044.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOMOS LIBRES3.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL3.3%
Results for event-2dfca6b750d8a930ab8d24be
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK12ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,82122.6%2Recorded
ALIANZA TODOS POR OTAVALO621ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,75012.9%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL148ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,64412.4%1Recorded
ALIANZA UNIDOS POR OTAVALO650ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,0419.6%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES22ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,8858.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ÚNETE, UNIÓN, ÉTICA, TRANSPARENCIA Y EQUIDAD181ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,8058.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION18ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,5647.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO COMPROMISO216ecuador/Sed7b513864/20191,4196.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA PAÍS LISTA 35 MINGA LISTA 104773ecuador/Sed7b513864/20199894.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOMOS LIBRES190ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197093.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL170ecuador/Sed7b513864/20197093.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS31.0%
  • UNIDAD FUERZA CIUDADANA - MPD26.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK26.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO16.2%
Results for event-37554b612797285948503555
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20146,23831%2Recorded
UNIDAD FUERZA CIUDADANA - MPD10010ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20145,32626.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20145,30826.4%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20143,25416.2%1Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 9,964 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 9,963. Both are retained.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-119,963
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 35,
  "cne_parish": 3590,
  "cne_province": 10,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electorate_difference": -1,
  "electors_august": 9963,
  "electors_july": 9964,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-J-10-35-3590",
  "name": "SAN PABLO / OTAVALO / IMBABURA",
  "office": "Parish board",
  "precinct_rows": [
    2054,
    2063
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 34,
  "register_pdf_row": 15,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION",
  "spending_limit_usd": 5978.4
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The 10 July spending resolution lists 9,964 electors; the 11 August distribution lists 9,963. Both are retained. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “SAN PABLO / OTAVALO / IMBABURA — Parish board.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-J-10-35-3590. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL, ecuador--SA40-EC-PARISH-REGISTER.