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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS — Municipal council

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS / GUAYAS · municipal · Municipal councilEC-C-9-390

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS / GUAYAS
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-e5f18dff1657afb9711369b4
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA42.1%
  • PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO33.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA8.3%
  • ALIANZA 1-175.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO2.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO VERDE, ÉTICO, REVOLUCIONARIO, DEMOCRÁTICO, (MOVER)2.1%
  • MINGA POR GUAYAQUIL1.9%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO1.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ0.8%
  • ALIANZA DEL FUTURO0.6%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA0.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO RENOVACIÓN0.5%
Results for event-2029684ddc11d2eaec35b690
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023542,37042.1%8Recorded
PSC-MADERA DE GUERRERO1167ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023426,71733.1%6Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023106,3638.3%1Recorded
ALIANZA 1-171361ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202366,4375.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO RENOVACIÓN TOTAL, RETO226ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202334,5792.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO VERDE, ÉTICO, REVOLUCIONARIO, DEMOCRÁTICO, (MOVER)186ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202327,2092.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MINGA POR GUAYAQUIL1099ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202324,3441.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202316,9121.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202312,6431%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ157ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202310,2370.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
ALIANZA DEL FUTURO1350ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20237,7340.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236,5200.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO RENOVACIÓN246ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236,2470.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO49.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL18.3%
  • ALIANZA NUEVO GUAYAQUIL11.2%
  • CREO - MST3.8%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE2.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA2.3%
  • FUERZA.EC2.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL1.1%
  • IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA1.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO0.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO0.9%
  • UNIDAD POPULAR0.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA0.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP0.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.9%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO0.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS0.8%
  • UNION ECUATORIANA0.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION0.6%
Results for event-4a7d3a8ad8c1748f97d247a3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO534ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,409,83349.6%12Recorded
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019890,65618.3%2Recorded
ALIANZA NUEVO GUAYAQUIL675ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019544,28111.2%1Recorded
CREO - MST741ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019186,4413.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE158ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019115,1412.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019113,2992.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
FUERZA.EC146ecuador/Sed7b513864/201994,8232%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO JUSTICIA SOCIAL170ecuador/Sed7b513864/201953,6361.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA152ecuador/Sed7b513864/201946,9151%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA ECUATORIANO8ecuador/Sed7b513864/201944,8900.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ECUATORIANO UNIDO219ecuador/Sed7b513864/201944,7400.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNIDAD POPULAR143ecuador/Sed7b513864/201944,6790.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA37ecuador/Sed7b513864/201944,2260.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP235ecuador/Sed7b513864/201943,0910.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK12ecuador/Sed7b513864/201941,5900.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO3ecuador/Sed7b513864/201940,4770.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO NACIONAL PODEMOS142ecuador/Sed7b513864/201939,0940.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
UNION ECUATORIANA51ecuador/Sed7b513864/201936,2110.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION18ecuador/Sed7b513864/201928,0290.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • 6-MADERA DE GUERRERO53.6%
  • ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO41.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO CREO1.4%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO0.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO SUMA0.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO0.6%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA0.6%
  • PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL0.5%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO0.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"0.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK0.3%
Results for event-4e6aae06b9ca9edabd8674ad
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
6-MADERA DE GUERRERO9013ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,960,76353.6%10Recorded
ALIANZA PAIS Y MOVIMIENTO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO9017ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20142,265,04441%5Recorded
MOVIMIENTO CREO8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201479,7821.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201437,2180.7%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SUMA13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201431,7260.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201431,5630.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201430,6090.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL9ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201426,1410.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201423,9250.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA "21 DE ENERO"4ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201418,1510.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201414,7090.3%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-112,019,614
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 390,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 9,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 2019614,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-C-9-390",
  "name": "GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS",
  "office": "Municipal council",
  "precinct_rows": [
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  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “GUAYAQUIL / GUAYAS — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-C-9-390. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.