Office briefing
EL GUABO / EL ORO — Municipal council
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · EL GUABO / EL ORO / EL ORO · municipal · Municipal councilEC-C-7-380
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- EL GUABO / EL ORO / EL ORO
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-867785b6db6a31cdd6fa9021
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R.26.5%
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK20.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO20.8%
- JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-7717.9%
- AVANZAMOS POR EL CAMBIO5.3%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA5.3%
- MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES2.6%
- PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR0.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R. | 147ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 8,178 | 26.5% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,429 | 20.9% | 2 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO | 32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 6,402 | 20.8% | 2 | Recorded |
| JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-77 | 1250ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,530 | 17.9% | 2 | Recorded |
| AVANZAMOS POR EL CAMBIO | 1434ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,635 | 5.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,634 | 5.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AMIGO, ACCIÓN MOVILIZADORA INDEPENDIENTE GENERANDO OPORTUNIDADES | 208ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 794 | 2.6% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO UNIDAD POPULAR | 231ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 210 | 0.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO25.9%
- MOVIMIENTO AUTONÓMICO REGIONAL, MAR19.3%
- MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL17.7%
- CENTRO DEMOCRATICO-SUR15.6%
- DEMOCRACIA SI Y ALIANZA PAIS13.5%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES5.0%
- MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP1.8%
- UNIDAD POPULAR1.3%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO | 1ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 23,360 | 25.9% | 2 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AUTONÓMICO REGIONAL, MAR | 4ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 17,398 | 19.3% | 2 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL | 148ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 15,903 | 17.7% | 2 | Recorded |
| CENTRO DEMOCRATICO-SUR | 785ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 14,015 | 15.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| DEMOCRACIA SI Y ALIANZA PAIS | 707ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 12,156 | 13.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO, CREANDO OPORTUNIDADES | 22ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,489 | 5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO LIBERTAD ES PUEBLO, LEP | 235ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,620 | 1.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,139 | 1.3% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO37.6%
- ALIANZA PAIS-MAR33.3%
- PARTIDO AVANZA11.0%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO6.1%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA3.9%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO3.5%
- PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO2.5%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO | 11ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 31,412 | 37.6% | 3 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA PAIS-MAR | 7007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 27,788 | 33.3% | 4 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO AVANZA | 6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 9,225 | 11% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,082 | 6.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 3,294 | 3.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,917 | 3.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIALISTA FRENTE AMPLIO | 10ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,069 | 2.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 1,715 | 2.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
WithheldUnknown0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 45,455 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 380,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 7,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 45455,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-C-7-380",
"name": "EL GUABO / EL ORO",
"office": "Municipal council",
"precinct_rows": [
876,
899,
900,
904,
986,
996,
997,
998,
999,
1000,
1001,
1089,
1100,
1101,
1102
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “EL GUABO / EL ORO — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-C-7-380. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.