Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

PASAJE / EL ORO — Municipal council

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Ecuador · PASAJE / EL ORO / EL ORO · municipal · Municipal councilEC-C-7-365

Read the complete original research briefing

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
PASAJE / EL ORO / EL ORO
Next election
2026-11-29
Linked upcoming event
next-ae176edfbb8274c6a9e9c748
Registry qualification
Qualified in source register

2. How certain is that date?

2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023-02-05

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes

  • MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R.29.9%
  • JUNTOS POR PASAJE Y JUNTOS POR LAS LAJAS15.8%
  • JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-7714.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO10.2%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA9.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE PROGRESISTA PASAJE7.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK4.8%
  • PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA4.5%
  • !EL CAMBIO VIENE!2.8%
  • SUMATE Y CREE, SOMOS MAYORIA1.2%
Results for event-b31fd0ae7510fa97f9f465d8
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO SUR UNIDO REGIONAL, S.U.R.147ecuador/Sa5c026518f/202313,23129.9%3Recorded
JUNTOS POR PASAJE Y JUNTOS POR LAS LAJAS1483ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236,98115.8%1Recorded
JUNTOS SEGUIREMOS HACIENDO HISTORIA 5-771250ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20236,22214%2Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO32ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,51010.2%1Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA101ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20234,4049.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE PROGRESISTA PASAJE10ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20233,0847%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20232,1134.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,9994.5%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
!EL CAMBIO VIENE!1019ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20231,2272.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SUMATE Y CREE, SOMOS MAYORIA1273ecuador/Sa5c026518f/20235321.2%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2019-03-24

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL17.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO16.5%
  • SIII 88 CREO 2114.3%
  • CENTRO DEMOCRATICO11.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE PROGRESISTA PASAJE10.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA7.1%
  • SUR UNIDO6.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO AUTONÓMICO REGIONAL, MAR6.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA5.6%
  • PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE2.9%
  • PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO2.0%
Results for event-adbe63bbbb0c01b27bb54202
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO F. COMPROMISO SOCIAL148ecuador/Sed7b513864/201926,02117%1Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO1ecuador/Sed7b513864/201925,15916.5%2Recorded
SIII 88 CREO 21641ecuador/Sed7b513864/201921,89214.3%2Recorded
CENTRO DEMOCRATICO145ecuador/Sed7b513864/201917,26911.3%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE PROGRESISTA PASAJE87ecuador/Sed7b513864/201915,31510%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MAS ACCION, SUMA37ecuador/Sed7b513864/201910,8597.1%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
SUR UNIDO775ecuador/Sed7b513864/201910,4866.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO AUTONÓMICO REGIONAL, MAR4ecuador/Sed7b513864/20199,8316.4%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA13ecuador/Sed7b513864/20198,5275.6%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO ADELANTE ECUATORIANO ADELANTE158ecuador/Sed7b513864/20194,4912.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIOTICA 21 DE ENERO3ecuador/Sed7b513864/20192,9822%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

2014-02-23

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO31.8%
  • ALIANZA PAIS-MAR24.9%
  • PARTIDO AVANZA19.5%
  • MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE PROGRESISTA PASAJE18.1%
  • PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO2.9%
  • PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2.8%
Results for event-1d1ced8226b5177361279117
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTIANO11ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201448,41031.8%3Recorded
ALIANZA PAIS-MAR7007ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201437,81724.9%2Recorded
PARTIDO AVANZA6ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201429,69619.5%1Recorded
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE PROGRESISTA PASAJE7004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/201427,59518.1%1Recorded
PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,3722.9%0 (recorded zero)Recorded
PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/20144,2382.8%0 (recorded zero)Recorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Withheld

Unknown0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

Electoral register observations

Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.

Register observations
As ofElectorsNotes
2026-08-1166,518
Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.
{
  "call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "cne_canton": 365,
  "cne_parish": null,
  "cne_province": 7,
  "election_date": "2026-11-29",
  "electors_august": 66518,
  "jurisdiction_id": "EC-C-7-365",
  "name": "PASAJE / EL ORO",
  "office": "Municipal council",
  "precinct_rows": [
    910,
    1009,
    1010,
    1011,
    1012,
    1013,
    1014,
    1015,
    1016,
    1017,
    1018,
    1019,
    1020,
    1021,
    1022,
    1023,
    1024,
    1025,
    1026,
    1027,
    1066,
    1067,
    1068,
    1083,
    1094,
    1095,
    1096,
    1097,
    1103
  ],
  "record_type": "official_electoral_register",
  "register_pdf_page": 7,
  "register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
  "snapshot": "2026-08-11",
  "source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
}

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “PASAJE / EL ORO — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-C-7-365. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.