Office briefing
GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR — Municipal council
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Ecuador · GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR · municipal · Municipal councilEC-C-2-165
Read the complete original research briefing
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR / BOLÍVAR
- Next election
- 2026-11-29
- Linked upcoming event
- next-8b1acfeb0be1e5291dae1527
- Registry qualification
- Qualified in source register
2. How certain is that date?
2026-11-29 is formally called. Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023-02-05
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · valid votes
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK29.6%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL MAS24.2%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA11.8%
- ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR9.3%
- PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA8.0%
- PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO7.2%
- MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA7.2%
- CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR2.7%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK | 7ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 14,626 | 29.6% | 2 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA SOCIAL MAS | 173ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 11,952 | 24.2% | 2 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD UNIDA MÁS ACCIÓN, SUMA | 42ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 5,852 | 11.8% | 1 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA ENCONTREMONOS POR BOLIVAR | 1084ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 4,614 | 9.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA | 117ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,971 | 8% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIEDAD PATRIÓTICA 21 DE ENERO | 34ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,552 | 7.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO POLÍTICO REVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA | 207ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 3,548 | 7.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| CONSTRUYENDO ESPERANZA EN BOLÍVAR | 1141ecuador/Sa5c026518f/2023 | 1,357 | 2.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2019-03-24
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK24.2%
- TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR17.9%
- ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE15.9%
- MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ12.2%
- CENTRO DEMOCRATICO6.4%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA5.9%
- IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA4.1%
- MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACIÓN OBRAS SON AMORES3.8%
- UNIDOS POR GUARANDA PSP 3 EC UNIDO 43.4%
- MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION NUEVA GENTE EN ACCION MINGA2.0%
- UNION ECUATORIANA1.7%
- MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION1.5%
- UNIDAD POPULAR0.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK | 12ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 33,105 | 24.2% | 2 | Recorded |
| TIEMPO DE CONSTRUIR | 548ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 24,396 | 17.9% | 2 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA POR LA INTEGRACIÓN BOLIVARENSE | 501ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 21,732 | 15.9% | 2 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DEMOCRACIA SÍ | 198ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 16,713 | 12.2% | 1 | Recorded |
| CENTRO DEMOCRATICO | 145ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 8,796 | 6.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS, PATRIA ALTIVA I SOBERANA | 13ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 8,059 | 5.9% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| IZQUIERDA DEMOCRÁTICA | 152ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,603 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACIÓN OBRAS SON AMORES | 11ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 5,210 | 3.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDOS POR GUARANDA PSP 3 EC UNIDO 4 | 547ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 4,709 | 3.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACION NUEVA GENTE EN ACCION MINGA | 173ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,782 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNION ECUATORIANA | 51ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,320 | 1.7% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CONCERTACION | 18ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 2,078 | 1.5% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| UNIDAD POPULAR | 143ecuador/Sed7b513864/2019 | 1,119 | 0.8% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
2014-02-23
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · candidate marks
- MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK24.9%
- MOVIMIENTO SUMA22.8%
- ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE20.6%
- MOVIMIENTO CREO13.7%
- PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO5.4%
- MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS4.3%
- MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACIÓN OBRAS SON AMORES4.1%
- PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL2.2%
- PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO2.0%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO DE UNIDAD PLURINACIONAL PACHAKUTIK | 5ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 31,751 | 24.9% | 2 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO SUMA | 13ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 29,011 | 22.8% | 2 | Recorded |
| ALIANZA INTEGRACION BOLIVARENSE | 2004ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 26,261 | 20.6% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO CREO | 8ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 17,407 | 13.7% | 1 | Recorded |
| PARTIDO MOVIMIENTO POPULAR DEMOCRATICO | 2ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 6,864 | 5.4% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA PAIS | 3ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,465 | 4.3% | 1 | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO DE INTEGRACIÓN OBRAS SON AMORES | 2002ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 5,213 | 4.1% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO RENOVADOR INSTITUCIONAL ACCION NACIONAL | 9ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,800 | 2.2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ROLDOSISTA ECUATORIANO | 1ecuador/S09da2a23f3/2014 | 2,599 | 2% | 0 (recorded zero) | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
WithheldUnknown0–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Comparison unavailable · Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks.
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=null, oldest_gap=null, previous_gap=null
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,null]
pedersen volatility
Withheld volatilityUnknownpercentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Six named standalone categories in CNE returns, including explicit short/expanded CREO, SUMA and Alianza PAIS labels. Mixed alliances, successor movements and other parties stay Other. This does not attribute Revolución Ciudadana votes to Alianza PAIS. Multi-mark and otherwise ineligible histories remain excluded. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["PSC","Avanza","Pachakutik","CREO","SUMA","Alianza PAIS","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,null]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
Electoral register observations
Dated elector counts stay distinct from turnout and are not summed across overlapping contests.
| As of | Electors | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 83,633 | Dated CNE administrative observation; not historical turnout. July count, difference and spending limit are retained separately.{
"call_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"cne_canton": 165,
"cne_parish": null,
"cne_province": 2,
"election_date": "2026-11-29",
"electors_august": 83633,
"jurisdiction_id": "EC-C-2-165",
"name": "GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR",
"office": "Municipal council",
"precinct_rows": [
281,
288,
289,
291,
306,
307,
308,
309,
313,
316,
317,
318,
319,
320,
321,
322,
323,
324,
325,
326,
327,
341,
342,
344,
346,
351,
352,
355,
356,
357,
358,
359,
361,
362,
363,
364,
365,
366
],
"record_type": "official_electoral_register",
"register_pdf_page": 7,
"register_source_id": "SA40-EC-CALL",
"snapshot": "2026-08-11",
"source_id": "SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION"
} |
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Council and parish votes before 2023 are candidate marks; 2023 is a closed-list ballot. Do not compare these vote shares as a continuous series. The 29 November 2026 ordinary cohort is reconciled to the CNE register. August precinct-distribution electors are a dated administrative count, not historical turnout or votes. Territorial boundary comparability, intervening outcomes and current control remain separate checks. The ordinary register is reconciled: 23 prefectures, 222 mayoralties, 222 municipal councils and 825 parish boards match the signed July 2026 call/list and August CNE codes. Borbón’s mayor/council and Miss Ecuador’s parish board are separate March 2027 first contests. Historical boundary comparability and some new-parish final returns remain open. Calacalí has final completion evidence but only preliminary rounded shares and secondary seat affiliations. Six first-election party vectors and elected rosters are recovered for the four 2024 parishes and Sevilla Don Bosco in 2025. Four small ballot-total discrepancies remain explicit. Shuar Pastaza remains preliminary. Fifteen July/August parish electorate differences are retained as dated observations.
Sources
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-electorales-2023/?wpdmdl=39834 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019/?wpdmdl=20971 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/download/resultados-a-nivel-parroquial-2014/?wpdmdl=21133 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: https://www.cne.gob.ec/distributivos-de-electores-2027/ · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2023.zip · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2023.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_resultados-dignidad-vocales-de-juntas-parroquiales-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2019.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ecuador_2014.sav · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE Ecuador — ec_candidatos-2014.dat · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE 2027 precinct and electorate distribution, cutoff 11 August 2026 · rights unknown
- Ecuador: CNE resolution PLE-CNE-1-31-7-2026: ordinary election call for 29 November 2026 · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “GUARANDA / BOLÍVAR — Municipal council.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/EC-C-2-165. Sources: ecuador--url-e0444af67a46db0c3c537d63, ecuador--url-afbb9a85cc78f50c79da76d6, ecuador--url-5b82aaaec7b8c8ce1fd49557, ecuador--url-e67940bdf0f1387ed11ac338, ecuador--Sa5c026518f, ecuador--Sadcc145662, ecuador--Sed7b513864, ecuador--Sf4e4f8e986, ecuador--S09da2a23f3, ecuador--S5c50f97474, ecuador--SA40-EC-DISTRIBUTION, ecuador--SA40-EC-CALL.