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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Silvia — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Silvia / Cauca · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-19743

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Silvia / Cauca
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-fc3c7c4849d9592d085ea2ae
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • JUNTOS LO HACEMOS POSIBLE45.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN31.0%
  • CEDE party code 2023000110.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS8.8%
  • CEDE party code 202300053.4%
  • FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO0.8%
Results for event-fc6c79f6e9acadda13359dab
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
JUNTOS LO HACEMOS POSIBLE · Juan Carlos Lopez Morales20231386colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20236,25245.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Luis Eduardo Calambas Velasco19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,23031%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230001 · Alirio Pito Ramos20230001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,39710.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Jose Enrique Morales Ullune20130002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,1968.8%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230005 · Luis Felipe Velasco Riascos20230005colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234683.4%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO · Maria Lastenia Pito Ramos20150388colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231150.8%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO34.0%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE30.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS22.1%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI10.2%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO3.2%
Results for event-5f65ebadf1dd73e89a50c288
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO · Mercedes Tunubala Velasco19910001colombia/S67eb704c85/20194,22634%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Juan Carlos Lopez Morales20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,80730.6%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Edwell Zape Tunubala20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,74622.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Manuel Alexander Sterling Ortiz19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,26610.2%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Jose Edilberto Muelas Hurtado20050001colombia/S67eb704c85/20193983.2%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI36.2%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO26.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS23.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO10.8%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO2.3%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO1.0%
Results for event-126b432f47451b29b58295e5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Jose Gustavo Cuene Correa19910006colombia/S8164286948/20154,44136.2%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Heriberto Tunubala Paja20050001colombia/S8164286948/20153,23726.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Jorge Eliecer Sanchez Ulchur20130002colombia/S8164286948/20152,87023.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO · Alvaro Morales Tombe19910001colombia/S8164286948/20151,32510.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Victor Manuel Gomez Valencia18490002colombia/S8164286948/20152792.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Jacinto Morales Tombe20030001colombia/S8164286948/20151171%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

45.630–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=14.80451017718553, oldest_gap=9.813350721330181, previous_gap=3.3673551394358228

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

91.24percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,8.756772587494508,0,0,91.24322741250548],[0,0,0,0,0,30.59551555091216,10.17439524230491,22.068632966326447,3.1985855501084948,33.962870690347984,0],[2.274023962833157,0,0,0.9536229521558399,0,0,36.19691906430842,23.392289510147528,26.383568342978236,10.79957616757682,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

53.76percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,8.756772587494508,0,0,91.24322741250548],[0,0,0,0,0,30.59551555091216,10.17439524230491,22.068632966326447,3.1985855501084948,33.962870690347984,0],[2.274023962833157,0,0,0.9536229521558399,0,0,36.19691906430842,23.392289510147528,26.383568342978236,10.79957616757682,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

72.5percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,8.756772587494508,0,0,91.24322741250548],[0,0,0,0,0,30.59551555091216,10.17439524230491,22.068632966326447,3.1985855501084948,33.962870690347984,0],[2.274023962833157,0,0,0.9536229521558399,0,0,36.19691906430842,23.392289510147528,26.383568342978236,10.79957616757682,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Silvia — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-19743. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.