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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

San Sebastian — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · San Sebastian / Cauca · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-19693

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
San Sebastian / Cauca
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-d68630290f001dae7cd66560
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE36.1%
  • PACTO HISTORICO33.1%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO30.8%
Results for event-f7ff2b13226e91c0efda1ae1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Pahola Elena Ordoñez Ceron20180046colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,99936.1%UnknownRecorded
PACTO HISTORICO · Jader Yelsi Astudillo Majin20231615colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,83333.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Luis Fernando Gomez18480001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,70430.8%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI53.8%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO46.2%
Results for event-6f2a09ebf24856505f2d4629
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Yobany Anacona Anacona19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,06053.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Hugo Alexander Enriquez Ordoñez18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,62946.2%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO56.4%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI43.6%
Results for event-5201611cace2429902a5820c
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Juan Alberto Ordoñez Ceron18480001colombia/S8164286948/20152,98756.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Yobany Anacona Anacona19910006colombia/S8164286948/20152,31343.6%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

73.280–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=2.9985549132947966, oldest_gap=12.716981132075475, previous_gap=7.576023905783089

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

69.22percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,30.78034682080925,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.21965317919076],[0,46.211988047108456,0,0,0,0,53.788011952891544,0,0,0,0],[0,56.35849056603774,0,0,0,0,43.64150943396226,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

10.15percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,30.78034682080925,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.21965317919076],[0,46.211988047108456,0,0,0,0,53.788011952891544,0,0,0,0],[0,56.35849056603774,0,0,0,0,43.64150943396226,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

39.68percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,30.78034682080925,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.21965317919076],[0,46.211988047108456,0,0,0,0,53.788011952891544,0,0,0,0],[0,56.35849056603774,0,0,0,0,43.64150943396226,0,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “San Sebastian — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-19693. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.