Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Rosas — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Rosas / Cauca · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-19622

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Rosas / Cauca
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-148211f71b25a4a40098a163
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION, POR LA LIBERTAD Y LA ESPERANZA38.0%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO24.9%
  • COALICION PROGRAMA Y POLITICA23.5%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE8.8%
  • PACTO HISTORICO4.7%
Results for event-2acbf0a7c342721bd483bf2e
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION, POR LA LIBERTAD Y LA ESPERANZA · Marco Antonio Rojas Carvajal20230943colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,28638%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Victor Hugo Castro Cruz18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,50224.9%UnknownRecorded
COALICION PROGRAMA Y POLITICA · Diego Fernando Garzon Lopez20230880colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,41723.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Eduar Teofilo Hernandez Elvira20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20235318.8%UnknownRecorded
PACTO HISTORICO · Jeyson Esteban Paz Mendez20231615colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232854.7%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO35.5%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO33.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U19.6%
  • G.S.C SALVEMOS A ROSAS6.9%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE3.6%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI1.0%
Results for event-c6a7fc1823dbf8c9af7ab2da
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jose Roberto Campo Osorio18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,17135.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Marco Antonio Rojas Carvajal18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,05233.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Hugo Aldrubal Narvaez Duque20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,19819.6%UnknownRecorded
G.S.C SALVEMOS A ROSAS · Roberto Jose Diaz Lopez20190184colombia/S67eb704c85/20194226.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Adiela Rios Perez20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192223.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Oscar Gerardo Carvajal Hernandez19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/2019591%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U34.7%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO33.7%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO31.6%
Results for event-e0fb61e73cbbb61a66db5347
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Jesus Eduardo Diaz Rios20050002colombia/S8164286948/20151,99934.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jose Roberto Campo Osorio18490002colombia/S8164286948/20151,94533.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Marco Antonio Rojas Carvajal18480001colombia/S8164286948/20151,82231.6%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

57.550–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=13.021092841720645, oldest_gap=0.9365244536940693, previous_gap=1.9431743958197245

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

68.16percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[24.946022255439296,0,0,0,0,8.819133034379671,0,0,0,0,66.23484471018104],[35.45068582625735,33.507511430437624,19.562377531025472,0,3.6250816459830175,0,0.9634225996080993,0,0,0,6.890920966688439],[33.73222337842525,31.599028789455428,34.66874783211932,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

15.11percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[24.946022255439296,0,0,0,0,8.819133034379671,0,0,0,0,66.23484471018104],[35.45068582625735,33.507511430437624,19.562377531025472,0,3.6250816459830175,0,0.9634225996080993,0,0,0,6.890920966688439],[33.73222337842525,31.599028789455428,34.66874783211932,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

41.63percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[24.946022255439296,0,0,0,0,8.819133034379671,0,0,0,0,66.23484471018104],[35.45068582625735,33.507511430437624,19.562377531025472,0,3.6250816459830175,0,0.9634225996080993,0,0,0,6.890920966688439],[33.73222337842525,31.599028789455428,34.66874783211932,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Rosas — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-19622. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.