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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Padilla — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Padilla / Cauca · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-19513

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Padilla / Cauca
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-387c656cc7f7f41c95aa0732
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO34.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO15.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U14.4%
  • CEDE party code 2023000512.4%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE11.3%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO8.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA2.1%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO1.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA0.7%
Results for event-9f4b84f5dba345d544cd2031
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Aide Romero Gonzalias18480001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,18934.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · Diego Luis Loboa Carabali19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202354115.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Ramon Orlando Gomez Vidal20050002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202349614.4%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230005 · Marvin Mina20230005colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202342812.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Elkin Fary Possu Mesa20180046colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202338911.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Efren Vasquez Uzuriaga20030001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232758%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA · Farley Viveros Ramos20180047colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023722.1%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Deyanira Gonzalias Rodallega20050001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023401.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Nelly Estella Gonzalez Machado19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023240.7%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES45.0%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE PADILLA-CAU. "PARA SEGUIR AVANZANDO"31.3%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO16.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS4.3%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE0.9%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U0.9%
  • MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO0.5%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE0.1%
Results for event-3e71c5e982a5feeadc05e465
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · Cristobal Morales Mazo20170001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,21245%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE PADILLA-CAU. "PARA SEGUIR AVANZANDO" · Armando Mina Mena20191286colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,53531.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Aide Romero Gonzalias18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/201983216.9%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Raul Ortiz Gonzalez20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192104.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Carlos Adolfo Andrade Narvaez20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019450.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Hamilson Gonzalez Velasco20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019440.9%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO · Segundo Ernesto Caicedo19910001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019260.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Milton Marino Valencia Cardenas20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/201970.1%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO61.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U24.3%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI11.1%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO3.2%
  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA0.3%
Results for event-5ac685e9e617df4f62c2db7f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Victor Hugo Vidal Aguilar20030001colombia/S8164286948/20152,77761%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Ana Celix Gomez Romero20050002colombia/S8164286948/20151,10824.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Raul Ortiz Gonzalez19910006colombia/S8164286948/201550711.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Amanda Aguilar Balanta18480001colombia/S8164286948/20151473.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Robinson Sandoval Diaz20090001colombia/S8164286948/2015150.3%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

4.710–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=18.760856977417482, oldest_gap=36.649099692577956, previous_gap=13.785379759723071

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

40.07percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,34.42385639837869,14.360162130862768,7.961783439490445,0,0,0,0,1.1580775911986103,0,42.09612044006948],[0,16.94155976379556,0.8959478721238037,0,0.916310323762981,0.1425371614742415,0,4.276114844227245,0,0.5294237426186112,76.29810629199756],[0,3.227931488801054,24.330259112867807,60.97935880544576,0,0,11.133069828722002,0,0,0,0.32938076416337286]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

95.55percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,34.42385639837869,14.360162130862768,7.961783439490445,0,0,0,0,1.1580775911986103,0,42.09612044006948],[0,16.94155976379556,0.8959478721238037,0,0.916310323762981,0.1425371614742415,0,4.276114844227245,0,0.5294237426186112,76.29810629199756],[0,3.227931488801054,24.330259112867807,60.97935880544576,0,0,11.133069828722002,0,0,0,0.32938076416337286]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

67.81percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,34.42385639837869,14.360162130862768,7.961783439490445,0,0,0,0,1.1580775911986103,0,42.09612044006948],[0,16.94155976379556,0.8959478721238037,0,0.916310323762981,0.1425371614742415,0,4.276114844227245,0,0.5294237426186112,76.29810629199756],[0,3.227931488801054,24.330259112867807,60.97935880544576,0,0,11.133069828722002,0,0,0,0.32938076416337286]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Padilla — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-19513. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.