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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

La Montañita — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · La Montañita / Caqueta · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-18410

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
La Montañita / Caqueta
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-2e6442ee612fd7b41df67009
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • AVANCEMOS MONTAÑITA47.0%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI33.0%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE20.0%
Results for event-549bfcf7503e52565870b874
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
AVANCEMOS MONTAÑITA · Federico Alviz Trujillo20230139colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,75547%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Jose Leonel Guarnizo Hernandez19910006colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,63133%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Deiman Fabian Rivera Gilon20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,59520%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO38.9%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE LA MONTAÑITA-CAQ. POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA - "VENGA, TRABAJEMOS POR LA MONTAÑITA"37.3%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE LA MONTAÑITA. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - "LA MONTAÑITA PARA TODOS"23.8%
Results for event-095b76ea2c135010154e4667
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Pablo Emilio Zapata Nicholles18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,71138.9%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE LA MONTAÑITA-CAQ. POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA - "VENGA, TRABAJEMOS POR LA MONTAÑITA" · Federico Alviz Trujillo20190560colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,59937.3%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE LA MONTAÑITA. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - "LA MONTAÑITA PARA TODOS" · Edgar Rincon Torres20190561colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,65423.8%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE LA MONTAÑITA. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR Y PARTIDO LIBERAL46.3%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO38.8%
  • IDENTIFICATE CON EL CAMBIO14.9%
Results for event-05f8f0d3d2fa03d38a3e76d6
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE LA MONTAÑITA. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR Y PARTIDO LIBERAL · Jose Leonel Guarnizo Hernandez20150157colombia/S8164286948/20152,79446.3%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Walter Collazos Sanchez20050001colombia/S8164286948/20152,34038.8%UnknownRecorded
IDENTIFICATE CON EL CAMBIO · Alvaro Gasca Torres20150158colombia/S8164286948/201590114.9%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

51.580–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=14.083448189449939, oldest_gap=7.522783761391878, previous_gap=1.6082711085582986

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

52.95percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,19.9849642901892,32.96579376018043,0,0,0,47.04924194963037],[38.928776565192415,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.07122343480758],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.77381938690969,0,61.22618061309031]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

38.93percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,19.9849642901892,32.96579376018043,0,0,0,47.04924194963037],[38.928776565192415,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.07122343480758],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.77381938690969,0,61.22618061309031]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

45.94percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,19.9849642901892,32.96579376018043,0,0,0,47.04924194963037],[38.928776565192415,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.07122343480758],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.77381938690969,0,61.22618061309031]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “La Montañita — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-18410. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.