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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Curillo — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Curillo / Caqueta · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-18205

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Curillo / Caqueta
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-08f8f1def1078c591a9a406c
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO47.2%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO22.8%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE15.9%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI7.1%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO6.9%
  • G.S.C LIGA DE GOBERNANTES ANTICORRUPCION0.1%
Results for event-86431ce9c9645cb70bb87bc3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Javier Villanueva Posso18480001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,95047.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Jose Ruben Muñoz Muñoz20030001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202394422.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Marlon Yecid Calderon Penagos20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202365615.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Jairo Medina Perez19910006colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232937.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jesus Jhonatan Diaz Contreras18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232866.9%UnknownRecorded
G.S.C LIGA DE GOBERNANTES ANTICORRUPCION · Flor Marina Cuellar Torres20191578colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202340.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO36.2%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO27.0%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI22.7%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE9.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U1.9%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE1.6%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO1.5%
Results for event-051fc349ea2ee6397488f86d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Maria Edith Rivera Bermeo18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,40136.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Javier Villanueva Posso18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,04727%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Luis Enel Agudelo Gaitan19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/201987922.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Jairo Medina Perez20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20193529.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · John Edulfer Vargas20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019731.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Misael Diaz Ardila20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019621.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Aceneth Prado Cordoba20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019591.5%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U44.8%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO36.0%
  • ASI DARA UN CAMBIO RADICAL19.2%
Results for event-d7709206e4e553509b8a72d4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Jose Ferrin Realpe Orobio20050002colombia/S8164286948/20151,69144.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Maria Edith Rivera Bermeo18490002colombia/S8164286948/20151,36136%UnknownRecorded
ASI DARA UN CAMBIO RADICAL · Luis Enel Agudelo Gaitan20150156colombia/S8164286948/201572419.2%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

8.90–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=24.34067263488991, oldest_gap=8.73940677966101, previous_gap=9.140201394268008

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

48.35percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[6.919912896201306,47.181224292281634,0,22.840551657391725,0,15.872247761916283,7.089281393660779,0,0,0,0.09678199854827002],[36.17350890782339,27.033307513555382,1.884843790343403,1.5233668990446683,1.6008262328943972,9.08856183836819,22.695584817970566,0,0,0,0],[36.043432203389834,0,44.782838983050844,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.173728813559322]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

62.07percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[6.919912896201306,47.181224292281634,0,22.840551657391725,0,15.872247761916283,7.089281393660779,0,0,0,0.09678199854827002],[36.17350890782339,27.033307513555382,1.884843790343403,1.5233668990446683,1.6008262328943972,9.08856183836819,22.695584817970566,0,0,0,0],[36.043432203389834,0,44.782838983050844,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.173728813559322]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

55.21percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[6.919912896201306,47.181224292281634,0,22.840551657391725,0,15.872247761916283,7.089281393660779,0,0,0,0.09678199854827002],[36.17350890782339,27.033307513555382,1.884843790343403,1.5233668990446683,1.6008262328943972,9.08856183836819,22.695584817970566,0,0,0,0],[36.043432203389834,0,44.782838983050844,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.173728813559322]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Curillo — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-18205. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.