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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Florencia — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Florencia / Caqueta · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-18001

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Florencia / Caqueta
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-39d3213b7fcd36301e154b62
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • NUEVO LIBERALISMO Y EN MARCHA27.6%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE26.4%
  • FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO18.5%
  • INDEPENDIENTES11.9%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE6.8%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD5.0%
  • G.S.C LIGA DE GOBERNANTES ANTICORRUPCION2.2%
  • CEDE party code 202300041.3%
  • CEDE party code 202300030.2%
Results for event-d7d43c83eee54f9393449926
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
NUEVO LIBERALISMO Y EN MARCHA · Marlon Monsalve Ascanio20231597colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202319,25327.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Jovanny Vasquez Gutierrez20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202318,42426.4%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO · Jose Delby Vargas Gutierrez20150388colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202312,88718.5%UnknownRecorded
INDEPENDIENTES · Karol Tatiana Arboleda Solano20190087colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20238,31211.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Wilder Joan Lopez Marquez20130001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,7716.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Eduardo Moya Contreras20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,4715%UnknownRecorded
G.S.C LIGA DE GOBERNANTES ANTICORRUPCION · David De Jesus Romero Quiroz20191578colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,5002.2%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230004 · Diego Ramirez Osorio20230004colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20239201.3%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230003 · Alverdy Diaz España20230003colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231590.2%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE38.0%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE33.4%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI17.6%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE FLORENCIA-CAQ. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO DE LA U11.1%
Results for event-972245a9b0fee20893936ab1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Luis Antonio Ruiz Cicery20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/201923,34438%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Hector Mauricio Cuellar Pinzon20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/201920,54133.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Jose Delby Vargas Gutierrez19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/201910,79717.6%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE FLORENCIA-CAQ. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO DE LA U · Juan Pablo Duque Gonzalez20190179colombia/S67eb704c85/20196,82611.1%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE36.2%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI19.6%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO17.3%
  • ALIANZA POR FLORENCIA12.0%
  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA9.3%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO5.0%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U0.6%
Results for event-99bcbdb392acd68d96295e86
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Andres Mauricio Perdomo Lara20130001colombia/S8164286948/201522,02636.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Jovanny Vasquez Gutierrez19910006colombia/S8164286948/201511,96319.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Juan Carlos Sefair Calderon20030001colombia/S8164286948/201510,56317.3%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA POR FLORENCIA · Oscar Vasquez Arias20150155colombia/S8164286948/20157,29212%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · German Medina Triviño20090001colombia/S8164286948/20155,6579.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Pablo Andres Alvarez Vega18480001colombia/S8164286948/20153,0375%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Juan Elibed Gonzalez Castro20050002colombia/S8164286948/20153750.6%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

81.340–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.1894342654633618, oldest_gap=16.52028302661172, previous_gap=4.557130779735971

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

55.62percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,6.845344849850065,26.43442328938118,0,0,0,0,66.72023186076876],[0,0,0,0,33.39565584964557,37.95278662938154,17.55381413799831,0,0,0,11.097743382974572],[0,4.985799418843269,0.615632131072185,17.341125868041306,36.15976885065585,0,19.63948582404413,0,0,0,21.25818790734326]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

37.95percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,6.845344849850065,26.43442328938118,0,0,0,0,66.72023186076876],[0,0,0,0,33.39565584964557,37.95278662938154,17.55381413799831,0,0,0,11.097743382974572],[0,4.985799418843269,0.615632131072185,17.341125868041306,36.15976885065585,0,19.63948582404413,0,0,0,21.25818790734326]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

46.79percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,6.845344849850065,26.43442328938118,0,0,0,0,66.72023186076876],[0,0,0,0,33.39565584964557,37.95278662938154,17.55381413799831,0,0,0,11.097743382974572],[0,4.985799418843269,0.615632131072185,17.341125868041306,36.15976885065585,0,19.63948582404413,0,0,0,21.25818790734326]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Florencia — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-18001. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.