Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Supia — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Supia / Caldas · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-17777

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Supia / Caldas
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-33090354091dc4a6c82d9033
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO33.4%
  • YO CREO EN SUPIA21.5%
  • ALIANZA POR EL PROGRESO DE SUPIA15.1%
  • SUPIA CON CORAZON, FUTURO Y TRADICION12.4%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE9.4%
  • EN MARCHA POR SUPIA6.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN2.1%
Results for event-8744725bdd20f7c6dcf8c34f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Hector Mauricio Torres Alvarez18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,16033.4%UnknownRecorded
YO CREO EN SUPIA · Andres Felipe Gomez Sanchez20232329colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,67721.5%UnknownRecorded
ALIANZA POR EL PROGRESO DE SUPIA · Oscar Jaime Tapasco Triviño20230066colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,87615.1%UnknownRecorded
SUPIA CON CORAZON, FUTURO Y TRADICION · Eduard Fernando Meza Florez20232010colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,54512.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Mauro Alexander Quiceno Salazar20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,1689.4%UnknownRecorded
EN MARCHA POR SUPIA · Kenedy Humberto Rios Galeano20231172colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20237836.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Nhora Helena Giraldo Restrepo19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232562.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SUPIA-CAL. PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PARTIDO LIBERAL - "SIEMPRE CON LA GENTE"59.0%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SUPIA-CAL. PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE - PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - MOVIMIENTO MAIS - PARTIDO CONSERVADOR Y PARTIDO DE LA U - "SUPIA DE TODOS Y PARA TODOS"39.3%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE1.7%
Results for event-78035941abecf13e3406d4e2
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SUPIA-CAL. PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PARTIDO LIBERAL - "SIEMPRE CON LA GENTE" · Marco Antonio Londoño Zuluaga20190549colombia/S67eb704c85/20197,13559%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SUPIA-CAL. PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE - PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - MOVIMIENTO MAIS - PARTIDO CONSERVADOR Y PARTIDO DE LA U - "SUPIA DE TODOS Y PARA TODOS" · Eduard Fernando Meza Florez20190550colombia/S67eb704c85/20194,75239.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Edgar Hoyos Diaz20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192061.7%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SUPIA. POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO Y PARTIDO MAIS40.4%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE32.4%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SUPIA. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO DE LA U23.9%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO3.3%
Results for event-a3ceecde7f7c4da2c8c36c71
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SUPIA. POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO Y PARTIDO MAIS · Omairo Ayala Cataño20150151colombia/S8164286948/20154,61040.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Marco Antonio Londoño Zuluaga20130001colombia/S8164286948/20153,69432.4%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SUPIA. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO DE LA U · Jairo Mejia Escobar20150152colombia/S8164286948/20152,72423.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · William De Jesus Moreno Hernandez20030001colombia/S8164286948/20153753.3%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

30.730–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.897312474929805, oldest_gap=8.032973778830133, previous_gap=19.705614818490034

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

41.04percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[33.37344564781388,0,0,0,0,9.370236662655435,0,0,0,0,57.25631768953069],[0,0,0,0,0,1.7034648143554123,0,0,0,0,98.29653518564459],[0,0,0,3.2886082609839518,32.39498377619925,0,0,0,0,0,64.31640796281681]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

35.68percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[33.37344564781388,0,0,0,0,9.370236662655435,0,0,0,0,57.25631768953069],[0,0,0,0,0,1.7034648143554123,0,0,0,0,98.29653518564459],[0,0,0,3.2886082609839518,32.39498377619925,0,0,0,0,0,64.31640796281681]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

38.36percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[33.37344564781388,0,0,0,0,9.370236662655435,0,0,0,0,57.25631768953069],[0,0,0,0,0,1.7034648143554123,0,0,0,0,98.29653518564459],[0,0,0,3.2886082609839518,32.39498377619925,0,0,0,0,0,64.31640796281681]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Supia — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-17777. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.