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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Salamina — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Salamina / Caldas · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-17653

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Salamina / Caldas
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-7abca6592d3634e3593747fe
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION RECUPEREMOS NUESTRA GRANDEZA32.5%
  • CEDE party code 2023000422.3%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE21.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA15.9%
  • ABC. ALIANZA BICENTENARIA CIUDADANA7.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA1.0%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE0.0%
Results for event-936d0b9a52d6598d7fab99d8
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION RECUPEREMOS NUESTRA GRANDEZA · Manuel Fermin Giraldo Gutierrez20230888colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,72132.5%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230004 · Luis Eduardo Rios Duque20230004colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,87422.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Nestor Jaime Naranjo Soto20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,78521.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA · Luis German Noreña Garcia20180047colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,33115.9%UnknownRecorded
ABC. ALIANZA BICENTENARIA CIUDADANA · Jose Luis Gutierrez Noreña20230017colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20235877%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Luis Adilier Castañeda19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023861%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Humberto Giraldo20180046colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202310%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SALAMINA-CAL. ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE Y PARTIDO LIBERAL47.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U40.0%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE5.8%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO2.9%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO2.4%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO0.8%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE0.6%
Results for event-99ecadbc58d7adcdab967200
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SALAMINA-CAL. ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE Y PARTIDO LIBERAL · Juan Pablo Ospina Rosas20190178colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,78347.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Ivan Dario Posada Ballesteros20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,17740%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Manuel Fernando Tirado Alzate20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20194635.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Fabian Lopez Gomez18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192332.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Andres Guillermo Gallego Gonzalez20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191872.4%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Henry Botero Sanchez20050001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019630.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Jose Heriberto Castaño Gonzalez20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019450.6%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO34.8%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO28.3%
  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA20.4%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO14.4%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE2.2%
Results for event-77820dd06c5ca514d2c47b00
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Luis German Noreña Garcia18480001colombia/S8164286948/20152,94534.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Manuel Fermin Giraldo Gutierrez18490002colombia/S8164286948/20152,39528.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Luis Eduardo Rios Duque20090001colombia/S8164286948/20151,72620.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Juan Pablo Ospina Rosas20030001colombia/S8164286948/20151,21614.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Nestor Jaime Maya Mejia20130001colombia/S8164286948/20151882.2%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

55.020–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=10.101371496720333, oldest_gap=6.493506493506494, previous_gap=7.6216828071940625

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

51.86percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,21.288014311270125,0,0,0,0,78.71198568872985],[2.9304490001257704,0,39.957238083259966,2.3519054207017986,5.823166897245629,0.5659665450886681,0,0,0.7923531631241353,0,47.57892089045403],[28.276269185360093,34.76977567886659,0,14.35655253837072,2.219598583234947,0,0,0,0,0,20.37780401416765]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

72.12percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,21.288014311270125,0,0,0,0,78.71198568872985],[2.9304490001257704,0,39.957238083259966,2.3519054207017986,5.823166897245629,0.5659665450886681,0,0,0.7923531631241353,0,47.57892089045403],[28.276269185360093,34.76977567886659,0,14.35655253837072,2.219598583234947,0,0,0,0,0,20.37780401416765]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

61.99percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,21.288014311270125,0,0,0,0,78.71198568872985],[2.9304490001257704,0,39.957238083259966,2.3519054207017986,5.823166897245629,0.5659665450886681,0,0,0.7923531631241353,0,47.57892089045403],[28.276269185360093,34.76977567886659,0,14.35655253837072,2.219598583234947,0,0,0,0,0,20.37780401416765]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Salamina — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-17653. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.