Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Risaralda — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Risaralda / Caldas · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-17616

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Risaralda / Caldas
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-152c21a9d2184ad6e469542a
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO48.2%
  • RISARALDA EN BUENAS MANOS48.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO3.7%
Results for event-bd94b72aadc28d8708fa9460
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Alejandro Betancur Morales18480001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,71948.2%UnknownRecorded
RISARALDA EN BUENAS MANOS · Hugo Fernando Moncada Cuervo20231882colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,71648.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · German Augusto Velez Quiceno19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232103.7%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO51.9%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U24.6%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE20.6%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE RISARALDA-CAL. POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO - PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE Y MOVIMIENTO MAIS - "RISARALDA SOY YO"1.6%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO0.8%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE0.5%
Results for event-cf981739a17c9ffe686179c6
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Juan Carlos Cortes Bermudez18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,86351.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Liliana Osorio Martinez20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,35924.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Luis Eliecer Raigosa Ledesma20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,13620.6%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE RISARALDA-CAL. POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO - PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE Y MOVIMIENTO MAIS - "RISARALDA SOY YO" · Ruben Dario Rendon Jaramillo20190545colombia/S67eb704c85/2019871.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jose Alexander Valencia Gallego18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019440.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Jose Fernando Gomez20180046colombia/S67eb704c85/2019270.5%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U51.0%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO35.9%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE8.3%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO4.8%
Results for event-bee2d4adb5c15a322e7e52ef
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Juan Camilo Gallego Hoyos20050002colombia/S8164286948/20152,87051%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Mario Andres Echavarria Raigosa18480001colombia/S8164286948/20152,02135.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Fredy De Jesus Montealegre Corrales20130001colombia/S8164286948/20154688.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Conrado De Jesus Maldonado Arenas18490002colombia/S8164286948/20152734.8%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

51.40–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=0.05314437555358609, oldest_gap=15.074573863636367, previous_gap=27.26613488034808

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

49.77percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,48.16651904340124,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.833480956598756],[0.7976794778825236,51.90355329949239,24.637418419144307,0,20.594633792603336,0,0,0,0,0,2.0667150108774477],[4.847301136363637,35.88423295454545,50.95880681818182,0,8.309659090909092,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

30.37percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,48.16651904340124,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.833480956598756],[0.7976794778825236,51.90355329949239,24.637418419144307,0,20.594633792603336,0,0,0,0,0,2.0667150108774477],[4.847301136363637,35.88423295454545,50.95880681818182,0,8.309659090909092,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

40.07percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,48.16651904340124,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.833480956598756],[0.7976794778825236,51.90355329949239,24.637418419144307,0,20.594633792603336,0,0,0,0,0,2.0667150108774477],[4.847301136363637,35.88423295454545,50.95880681818182,0,8.309659090909092,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Risaralda — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-17616. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.