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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Pensilvania — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Pensilvania / Caldas · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-17541

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Pensilvania / Caldas
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-56cb65caff72dfe3ede8340d
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • GRAN ACUERDO POR PENSILVANIA57.1%
  • PACHO GUTIERREZ42.9%
Results for event-33d9fb51b6063276d2ea5804
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
GRAN ACUERDO POR PENSILVANIA · Jesus Ivan Ospina Atehortua20231296colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20235,77157.1%UnknownRecorded
PACHO GUTIERREZ · Gustavo Gutierrez Enciso20231610colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,33842.9%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • G.S.C PENSILVANIA PRIMERO44.4%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE39.6%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE PENSILVANIA-CAL. PARTIDO AICO Y PARTIDO LIBERAL - "NUESTRA ALIANZA ES CON EL PUEBLO"15.1%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE1.0%
Results for event-e231b1ce787c9ac6e9a8fbe5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
G.S.C PENSILVANIA PRIMERO · Jorge Orlando Garcia Restrepo20190177colombia/S67eb704c85/20194,30944.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Camilo Zuluaga Zuluaga20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,84539.6%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE PENSILVANIA-CAL. PARTIDO AICO Y PARTIDO LIBERAL - "NUESTRA ALIANZA ES CON EL PUEBLO" · William Montoya Grajales20190544colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,46415.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Sorany Franco Perez20180046colombia/S67eb704c85/2019951%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE58.2%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO29.1%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U10.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS1.9%
Results for event-88dcd8dd693eac7354f3162f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Jesus Ivan Ospina Atehortua20130001colombia/S8164286948/20155,16558.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · German Albeiro Giraldo Montoya20030001colombia/S8164286948/20152,58529.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Mario Humberto Quintero Cortes20050002colombia/S8164286948/201595610.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Sorany Franco Perez20130002colombia/S8164286948/20151671.9%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

35.770–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=14.175487189633003, oldest_gap=29.0769750929787, previous_gap=4.777102851848035

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,39.58612169257696,0,0,0,0,0,60.41387830742304],[0,0,10.774258987940945,29.133325819903078,58.21030091288178,0,0,1.8821142792742027,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

60.41percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,39.58612169257696,0,0,0,0,0,60.41387830742304],[0,0,10.774258987940945,29.133325819903078,58.21030091288178,0,0,1.8821142792742027,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,39.58612169257696,0,0,0,0,0,60.41387830742304],[0,0,10.774258987940945,29.133325819903078,58.21030091288178,0,0,1.8821142792742027,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Pensilvania — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-17541. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.