Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Marquetalia — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Marquetalia / Caldas · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-17444

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Marquetalia / Caldas
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-9af43c155832ccffcaef6082
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MARQUETALIA AVANZA35.3%
  • UNIDOS POR MARQUETALIA24.9%
  • BIOMARQUETALIA21.0%
  • MARQUETALIA NOS UNE18.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN0.5%
Results for event-6bfdca8f76013dd4e9dda466
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MARQUETALIA AVANZA · Edwin Jesus Sanchez Aristizabal20231505colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,56135.3%UnknownRecorded
UNIDOS POR MARQUETALIA · Jose Norberto Buitrago Aguirre20232222colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,80924.9%UnknownRecorded
BIOMARQUETALIA · Oscar Gildardo Ocampo Cuervo20230170colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,52721%UnknownRecorded
MARQUETALIA NOS UNE · Adriana Aristizabal Marin20231506colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,33018.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Gonzalo Garcia Duque19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023350.5%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE21.0%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE18.6%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO16.7%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE14.8%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO14.2%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE LA DORADA-CAL. MOVIMIENTO MAIS Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA - "JHOEL PALOMINO ALCALDE"12.8%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U2.0%
Results for event-31ff5a52ab3567dbef2fc9a0
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Francisco Javier Velez Quiroga20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,35821%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Yarledy Llano Gonzalez20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,20018.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jose Rodrigo Parra Serna18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,07716.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Danny Alberto Velez Osorio20180046colombia/S67eb704c85/201995314.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Oscar Alberto Cardona Aguirre20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/201991414.2%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE LA DORADA-CAL. MOVIMIENTO MAIS Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA - "JHOEL PALOMINO ALCALDE" · Julieth Cristina Cardona Ramirez20190541colombia/S67eb704c85/201982812.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Hector Arley Meza Arango20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191292%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE41.1%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO21.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U20.5%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI9.1%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO7.9%
Results for event-04cc6b472af52a095f7f0df1
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Luis Carlos Betancourt Florez20130001colombia/S8164286948/20152,71241.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Danny Alberto Velez Osorio20030001colombia/S8164286948/20151,40521.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Edwin Jesus Sanchez Aristizabal20050002colombia/S8164286948/20151,35520.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Geimar Murillo Gomez19910006colombia/S8164286948/20156009.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Bernardo Fortidis Gonzalez Aguilar18490002colombia/S8164286948/20155247.9%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

55.360–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=10.355274029193058, oldest_gap=19.81503941782899, previous_gap=2.4461991020281744

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[16.67440780306549,0,1.9972131908964237,14.15079733704908,18.578727357176035,21.02492645920421,0,0,0,0,27.57392785260876],[7.944208611279564,0,20.542753183747728,21.300788356579744,41.115827774408736,0,9.096422073984233,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

57.33percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[16.67440780306549,0,1.9972131908964237,14.15079733704908,18.578727357176035,21.02492645920421,0,0,0,0,27.57392785260876],[7.944208611279564,0,20.542753183747728,21.300788356579744,41.115827774408736,0,9.096422073984233,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[16.67440780306549,0,1.9972131908964237,14.15079733704908,18.578727357176035,21.02492645920421,0,0,0,0,27.57392785260876],[7.944208611279564,0,20.542753183747728,21.300788356579744,41.115827774408736,0,9.096422073984233,0,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Marquetalia — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-17444. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.