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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Anserma — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Anserma / Caldas · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-17042

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Anserma / Caldas
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-ea06d247cb75690cb428b7c6
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • ALIANZA POR LA RECUPERACION DE ANSERMA53.7%
  • TODOS POR ANSERMA40.0%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE6.3%
Results for event-3d09eae31580c7b2c4e4c8fc
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
ALIANZA POR LA RECUPERACION DE ANSERMA · Omar Andres Reina Muñoz20230070colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20238,19653.7%UnknownRecorded
TODOS POR ANSERMA · Jorge Andres Gomez Escudero20232039colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20236,10940%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Alexander Ospina Cuartas20130001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20239686.3%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES48.0%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE ANSERMA-CAL. PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PARTIDO LIBERAL - "ANSERMA ES DE TODOS"42.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U5.2%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO3.2%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE1.0%
Results for event-1924cd062b68269f0fba3a57
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · John Alejandro Londoño Medina20170001colombia/S67eb704c85/20196,92248%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE ANSERMA-CAL. PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PARTIDO LIBERAL - "ANSERMA ES DE TODOS" · Luis Fernando Grajales Toro20191903colombia/S67eb704c85/20196,15242.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Gustavo Rios Obando20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/20197485.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jaime Alberto Osorio Valencia18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20194643.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Carlos Augusto Orozco Ramirez20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191431%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO34.9%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE34.4%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U21.0%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO9.8%
Results for event-31ab6502ee8297b8f82a32f4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jennie De Jesus Betancur Calvo18490002colombia/S8164286948/20155,30234.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Luis Fernando Grajales Toro20130001colombia/S8164286948/20155,22834.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Jorge Andres Quintero Guevara20050002colombia/S8164286948/20153,19921%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Adiela Bedoya Arcila18480001colombia/S8164286948/20151,4849.8%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

50.760–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=13.664636941007004, oldest_gap=0.4864260829553615, previous_gap=5.336475154203342

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

9.39percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,6.33798205984417,0,0,0,0,0,93.66201794015583],[3.2157460669485065,0,5.184004435511817,0,0,0.9910596714949061,0,0,0,0,90.60918982604477],[34.85177151120752,9.754814960888714,21.028068099651612,0,34.365345428252155,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

91.6percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,6.33798205984417,0,0,0,0,0,93.66201794015583],[3.2157460669485065,0,5.184004435511817,0,0,0.9910596714949061,0,0,0,0,90.60918982604477],[34.85177151120752,9.754814960888714,21.028068099651612,0,34.365345428252155,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

50.5percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,6.33798205984417,0,0,0,0,0,93.66201794015583],[3.2157460669485065,0,5.184004435511817,0,0,0.9910596714949061,0,0,0,0,90.60918982604477],[34.85177151120752,9.754814960888714,21.028068099651612,0,34.365345428252155,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Anserma — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-17042. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.