Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Toca — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Toca / Boyaca · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-15814

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Toca / Boyaca
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-a909721ed8e9e604a09f944c
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • TOCA POR BUEN CAMINO55.8%
  • COALICION LIBERAL-CONSERVADORA44.2%
Results for event-498aca547589962044f0f931
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
TOCA POR BUEN CAMINO · German Alonso Becerra Lopez20232027colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,43855.8%UnknownRecorded
COALICION LIBERAL-CONSERVADORA · Julio Cesar Guio Maldonado20230435colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,72244.2%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE TOCA-BOY. PARTIDO DE LA U - MOVIMIENTO MAIS Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE -"EN EQUIPO HACEMOS MAS"51.1%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE TOCA-BOY. PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - "AVANCEMOS JUNTOS POR TOCA"48.9%
Results for event-8e7ec27fd30c252489873674
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE TOCA-BOY. PARTIDO DE LA U - MOVIMIENTO MAIS Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE -"EN EQUIPO HACEMOS MAS" · Segundo Crisanto Ochoa Diaz20191890colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,92951.1%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE TOCA-BOY. PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - "AVANCEMOS JUNTOS POR TOCA" · German Alonso Becerra Lopez20191889colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,80348.9%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE TOCA. PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE50.6%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE29.6%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO18.9%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO0.9%
Results for event-2951b062204c52d2b6b7845f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE TOCA. PARTIDO LIBERAL - PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Isaias Neira Rios20150134colombia/S8164286948/20152,61050.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Camilo Fernando Caicedo Fonseca20130001colombia/S8164286948/20151,53029.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Carlos Humberto Rodriguez Martinez20030001colombia/S8164286948/201597518.9%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Pedro Ignacio Rodriguez Fonseca20050001colombia/S8164286948/2015470.9%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

51.370–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=11.623376623376629, oldest_gap=20.92212320805889, previous_gap=2.1981856245638483

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,0,18.888027896164278,29.639674544750097,0,0,0,0.910499806276637,0,50.561797752808985]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,0,18.888027896164278,29.639674544750097,0,0,0,0.910499806276637,0,50.561797752808985]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,null,[0,0,0,18.888027896164278,29.639674544750097,0,0,0,0.910499806276637,0,50.561797752808985]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Toca — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-15814. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.