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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Paez — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Paez / Boyaca · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-15514

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Paez / Boyaca
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-ddb4595be7c4146bb7fe410e
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • UNIDOS POR UN MEJOR FUTURO PARA PAEZ67.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO28.6%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO4.1%
Results for event-30474c5fc67ef9b05ade22f4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
UNIDOS POR UN MEJOR FUTURO PARA PAEZ · Juan Diego Morales Calderon20232253colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,28067.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · Walter Yecid Martinez Suarez19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202354428.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Willington Alexander Mendoza Umaña18480001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023774.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE PAEZ-BOY. PARTIDO DE LA U - PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - "ALCALDIA DE PAEZ"53.7%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE46.3%
Results for event-1a1ca82f5c87c905587e0614
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE PAEZ-BOY. PARTIDO DE LA U - PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - "ALCALDIA DE PAEZ" · Juan Diego Morales Calderon20191831colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,08653.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Jose Gilberto Buitrago Barreto20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/201993746.3%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U29.6%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE29.3%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO23.5%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO13.5%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE4.1%
Results for event-f6c55383901929c0fd551ec7
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Dumar Fabian Lozano Vargas20050002colombia/S8164286948/201552929.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Jose Gilberto Buitrago Barreto20130001colombia/S8164286948/201552329.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Marlon Fernando Lopez Cardenas18480001colombia/S8164286948/201541923.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Ovelio Piñeros Torres20030001colombia/S8164286948/201524113.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Hector Arialdo Pardo Alfonso20090002colombia/S8164286948/2015744.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=38.71646501841136, oldest_gap=0.33594624860022293, previous_gap=7.365299060800794

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

46.32percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,4.0504997369805364,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.94950026301947],[0,0,0,0,46.3173504695996,0,0,0,0,0,53.6826495304004],[0,23.460246360582307,29.61926091825308,13.49384098544233,29.283314669652857,4.143337066069429,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

70.72percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,4.0504997369805364,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.94950026301947],[0,0,0,0,46.3173504695996,0,0,0,0,0,53.6826495304004],[0,23.460246360582307,29.61926091825308,13.49384098544233,29.283314669652857,4.143337066069429,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

58.52percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,4.0504997369805364,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.94950026301947],[0,0,0,0,46.3173504695996,0,0,0,0,0,53.6826495304004],[0,23.460246360582307,29.61926091825308,13.49384098544233,29.283314669652857,4.143337066069429,0,0,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Paez — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-15514. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.