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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Garagoa — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Garagoa / Boyaca · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-15299

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Garagoa / Boyaca
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-fc9d6eb498c979bc36f0bf25
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • SANABRIA ES MAS GESTION49.3%
  • LO MEJOR PARA GARAGOA27.2%
  • JUNTOS SOMOS MAS FUERTES11.1%
  • CEDE party code 202300019.3%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES1.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA1.2%
Results for event-ca9ca793c02bf32e483c1a01
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
SANABRIA ES MAS GESTION · Julio Ernesto Sanabria Guerra20231915colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,01549.3%UnknownRecorded
LO MEJOR PARA GARAGOA · Daniel Ramiro Moreno Lesmes20231479colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,21527.2%UnknownRecorded
JUNTOS SOMOS MAS FUERTES · Yamid Amad Parra Forero20231426colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202390311.1%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230001 · Oscar Leonardo Rojas20230001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20237589.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · Carlos Ivan Mariño Hernandez20170001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231501.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Oscar German Bonilla Rodriguez19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023981.2%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE GARAGOA-BOY. MOVIMIENTO MAIS - PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - "GARAGOA SOMOS TODOS"44.1%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO31.0%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE14.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U10.5%
Results for event-4a3a2ddd8cd15b71c4a822c8
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE GARAGOA-BOY. MOVIMIENTO MAIS - PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - "GARAGOA SOMOS TODOS" · Fabio Augusto Arevalo20190431colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,26644.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Michel Angel Sanchez18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,29631%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Hugo Jose Moreno Alfonso20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,07314.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Oscar Leonardo Rojas20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/201977810.5%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U50.0%
  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA25.3%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO11.6%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO5.9%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO3.2%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE2.2%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE1.8%
Results for event-31df2aef2f4708cc3ded7050
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Julio Ernesto Sanabria Guerra20050002colombia/S8164286948/20153,73250%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Marco Antonio Sogamoso Rubiano20090001colombia/S8164286948/20151,89125.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · William Genaro Parra Serrano20030001colombia/S8164286948/201586511.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Fabio Augusto Arevalo18480001colombia/S8164286948/20154435.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Luis Alberto Leguizamon Alfonso18490002colombia/S8164286948/20152393.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Hugo Jose Moreno Alfonso20090002colombia/S8164286948/20151642.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Maria Aracely Roa Vargas20130001colombia/S8164286948/20151311.8%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

1.690–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=22.115739034279397, oldest_gap=24.66175485599464, previous_gap=13.085120733845947

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[30.97261567516525,0,10.495076217455821,0,0,14.474571698367733,0,0,0,0,44.0577364090112],[3.2016075016744807,5.93436034829203,49.99330207635633,11.587407903549899,1.754855994641661,2.1969189551239117,0,0,0,0,25.33154722036169]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

58.77percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[30.97261567516525,0,10.495076217455821,0,0,14.474571698367733,0,0,0,0,44.0577364090112],[3.2016075016744807,5.93436034829203,49.99330207635633,11.587407903549899,1.754855994641661,2.1969189551239117,0,0,0,0,25.33154722036169]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[30.97261567516525,0,10.495076217455821,0,0,14.474571698367733,0,0,0,0,44.0577364090112],[3.2016075016744807,5.93436034829203,49.99330207635633,11.587407903549899,1.754855994641661,2.1969189551239117,0,0,0,0,25.33154722036169]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Garagoa — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-15299. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.