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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Cerinza — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Cerinza / Boyaca · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-15162

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Cerinza / Boyaca
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-d40d067807751dcf6f78b957
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION LCC37.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVA FUERZA DEMOCRATICA35.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA14.6%
  • COMPROMISO Y LEALTAD12.6%
Results for event-fb4ca8bf7d17e224a4881736
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION LCC · Luis Carlos Chia Hernandez20230808colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,02837.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA FUERZA DEMOCRATICA · Danilo Antonio Reyes Morantes19900002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202398935.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Marco Antonio Cucaita Martinez19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202340314.6%UnknownRecorded
COMPROMISO Y LEALTAD · Oscar Giovanny Cepeda Diaz20230980colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202334912.6%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO28.5%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE23.6%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE22.7%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO12.8%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI12.3%
Results for event-91b49b08f49507062e4c113f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Juan Alcibiades Cely Amaya18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/201973928.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Henry Antonio Eslava Manosalva20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/201961123.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Gloria Esperanza Vega Pinto20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/201958822.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Marco Antonio Cucaita Martinez20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/201933212.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Camilo Josue Castro19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/201931912.3%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE CERINZA. PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL58.2%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE CERINZA. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE41.8%
Results for event-ec21c527bd00e10bf2a00357
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE CERINZA. PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL · Luis Carlos Chia Hernandez20150077colombia/S8164286948/20151,52058.2%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE CERINZA. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Jose Fernando Morales Acuña20150078colombia/S8164286948/20151,09141.8%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

80.140–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.408450704225352, oldest_gap=16.430486403676753, previous_gap=4.943993820007723

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[28.54383932020085,0,0,12.823483970645036,22.711471610660485,23.599845500193126,12.321359598300502,0,0,0,0],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[28.54383932020085,0,0,12.823483970645036,22.711471610660485,23.599845500193126,12.321359598300502,0,0,0,0],null]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[28.54383932020085,0,0,12.823483970645036,22.711471610660485,23.599845500193126,12.321359598300502,0,0,0,0],null]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Cerinza — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-15162. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.