Office briefing
Caldas — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Colombia · Caldas / Boyaca · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-15131
Read the complete original research briefing
Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Caldas / Boyaca
- Next election
- 2027-10-31
- Linked upcoming event
- next-eff03e326108286401b9157e
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- COALICION LIBERAL40.0%
- MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO29.8%
- COALICION CALDAS TERRITORIO DE OPORTUNIDADES29.4%
- MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS0.8%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COALICION LIBERAL · Diego Alejandro Lancheros Ruiz | 20230809colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 1,038 | 40% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · Zamir Eduardo Castellanos Cortes | 19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 774 | 29.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| COALICION CALDAS TERRITORIO DE OPORTUNIDADES · John Carlos Paez Cruz | 20230508colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 763 | 29.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Ana Aidee Cañon Avella | 20130002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 20 | 0.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
2019
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- COALICION ALCALDIA DE CALDAS-BOY. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - "UNIDOS POR EL PROGRESO DE CALDAS"43.0%
- COALICION ALCALDIA DE POPAYAN-CAU. PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - "CREO EN POPAYAN"24.0%
- PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE23.7%
- PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO9.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COALICION ALCALDIA DE CALDAS-BOY. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - "UNIDOS POR EL PROGRESO DE CALDAS" · Isnardo Alfonso Castellanos Peña | 20191777colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 961 | 43% | Unknown | Recorded |
| COALICION ALCALDIA DE POPAYAN-CAU. PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE - "CREO EN POPAYAN" · Victor Manuel Cuervo Cañon | 20191778colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 537 | 24% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · John Carlos Paez Cruz | 20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 530 | 23.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Julio Guillermo Lancheros Lancheros | 20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 206 | 9.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
2015
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO53.9%
- PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U37.9%
- PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO8.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Jose Rubiel Paez | 20030001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 1,234 | 53.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Victor Manuel Cuervo Cañon | 20050002colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 869 | 37.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Zamir Eduardo Castellanos Cortes | 18480001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 188 | 8.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI33.040–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=10.173410404624278, oldest_gap=15.931907463989525, previous_gap=18.97940913160251
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility32.95percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.7707129094412332,0,0,99.22928709055877],[0,0,0,9.221128021486123,0,23.724261414503133,0,0,0,0,67.05461056401074],[0,8.206023570493235,37.93103448275862,53.862941946748144,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility90.78percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.7707129094412332,0,0,99.22928709055877],[0,0,0,9.221128021486123,0,23.724261414503133,0,0,0,0,67.05461056401074],[0,8.206023570493235,37.93103448275862,53.862941946748144,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility61.86percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.7707129094412332,0,0,99.22928709055877],[0,0,0,9.221128021486123,0,23.724261414503133,0,0,0,0,67.05461056401074],[0,8.206023570493235,37.93103448275862,53.862941946748144,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.
Sources
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW · rights unknown
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB · rights unknown
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2023 alcaldia · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2019 alcaldia · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2015 alcaldia · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Caldas — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-15131. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.