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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Arcabuco — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Arcabuco / Boyaca · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-15051

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Arcabuco / Boyaca
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-7c74656a1616466825ebd104
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • POR LA DIGNIDAD DE ARCABUCO39.9%
  • ARCABUCO VERDE UNIDO POR LA GENTE30.3%
  • COALICION UNIDOS ARCABUCO PROGRESA29.9%
Results for event-424d7349470a84268de254c3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
POR LA DIGNIDAD DE ARCABUCO · Carlos David Zarate Baez20231745colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,58339.9%UnknownRecorded
ARCABUCO VERDE UNIDO POR LA GENTE · Remberg Fernando Saavedra Castellanos20230113colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,20230.3%UnknownRecorded
COALICION UNIDOS ARCABUCO PROGRESA · Camilo Andres Silva Motta20230914colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,18729.9%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARCABUCO-BOY. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PARTIDO LIBERAL53.0%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARCABUCO-BOY. PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - PARTIDO DE LA U Y ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - "ARCABUCO SOCIAL Y PRODUCTIVO"30.1%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARCABUCO-BOY. PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE - "ARCABUCO VERDE Y RENACIENTE"10.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS6.1%
Results for event-0c7f3301ede6ef2bb63efb52
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARCABUCO-BOY. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR - PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y PARTIDO LIBERAL · Yamith Rodrigo Rodriguez Lopez20190141colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,00053%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARCABUCO-BOY. PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL - PARTIDO DE LA U Y ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - "ARCABUCO SOCIAL Y PRODUCTIVO" · Jairo Ruiz Salazar20191769colombia/S67eb704c85/20191,13630.1%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARCABUCO-BOY. PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE Y PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE - "ARCABUCO VERDE Y RENACIENTE" · Viviana Patricia Poveda Castellanos20190399colombia/S67eb704c85/201940810.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Jose Eduar Molina Suarez20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/20192296.1%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARCABUCO. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE41.7%
  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARCABUCO. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR Y PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO33.7%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO24.6%
Results for event-728f51281a13c25f877d2605
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARCABUCO. PARTIDO LIBERAL Y PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Victor Hugo Silva Motta20150071colombia/S8164286948/20151,40341.7%UnknownRecorded
COALICION ALCALDIA DE ARCABUCO. PARTIDO CONSERVADOR Y PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO · Yamith Rodrigo Rodriguez Lopez20150070colombia/S8164286948/20151,13333.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Reynerio Fernando Garcia Neira20030001colombia/S8164286948/201582924.6%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

32.860–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=9.592145015105743, oldest_gap=8.023774145616642, previous_gap=22.899549430161674

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,6.0694407633183145,0,0,93.93055923668169],[0,0,0,24.635958395245172,0,0,0,0,0,0,75.36404160475483]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

24.64percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,6.0694407633183145,0,0,93.93055923668169],[0,0,0,24.635958395245172,0,0,0,0,0,0,75.36404160475483]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,6.0694407633183145,0,0,93.93055923668169],[0,0,0,24.635958395245172,0,0,0,0,0,0,75.36404160475483]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Arcabuco — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-15051. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.