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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Villanueva — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Villanueva / Bolivar · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-13873

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Villanueva / Bolivar
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-33fcc7ca6d975a0a4049d769
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO35.3%
  • PARTIDO DE LA UNION POR LA GENTE - PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO33.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN24.7%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD6.4%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA0.1%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO0.1%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE0.0%
Results for event-57895ec58270baeea4a05d02
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Euripides Orlando Velasco Mendoza20030001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,24835.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DE LA UNION POR LA GENTE - PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Jose David Amaya Cera20230451colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,01333.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Gregorio Camacho Cera19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,96824.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Carlos Andres Cabeza Zuñiga20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20237746.4%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Justo Alfaro Vega19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023110.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · David Enrique Parra Cerda18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202380.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Plinio De Jesus Mercado Mendoza20180046colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202330%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U46.5%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO44.7%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE5.1%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO2.9%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO0.6%
  • PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE0.1%
Results for event-7669f5a520109e112dcc2021
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Edwin Puerta Orozco20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/20195,43446.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Gregorio Camacho Cera18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20195,22844.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Angel Amiro Noya Polo20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20195935.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Julio Enrique Sanchez Cera18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20193382.9%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Ignacio Anaya Taborda20050001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019750.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE · Justo Alfaro Vega20180004colombia/S67eb704c85/2019150.1%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA52.7%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE46.5%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO0.4%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI0.3%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS0.2%
Results for event-41054ffe2f7947762c06cc21
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Gilberto David Amaya Vasquez20090001colombia/S8164286948/20155,45352.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Gregorio Camacho Cera20090002colombia/S8164286948/20154,81146.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Angel Amiro Noya Polo18480001colombia/S8164286948/2015430.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · William Vasquez Julio19910006colombia/S8164286948/2015280.3%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Euripides Orlando Velasco Mendoza20130002colombia/S8164286948/2015200.2%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

88.390–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.954261954261952, oldest_gap=6.199903428295514, previous_gap=1.763245741675938

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

99.81percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0.06652806652806653,0,0,35.32640332640332,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.60706860706861],[44.748780279037916,2.893092527604211,46.512026020713854,0,5.075751091329282,0,0,0,0.641958401095609,0,0.1283916802191218],[0,0.4152583293095123,0,0,0,46.460647030420084,0.27040077257363593,0.19314340898116852,0,0,52.6605504587156]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

99.46percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0.06652806652806653,0,0,35.32640332640332,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.60706860706861],[44.748780279037916,2.893092527604211,46.512026020713854,0,5.075751091329282,0,0,0,0.641958401095609,0,0.1283916802191218],[0,0.4152583293095123,0,0,0,46.460647030420084,0.27040077257363593,0.19314340898116852,0,0,52.6605504587156]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

99.63percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0.06652806652806653,0,0,35.32640332640332,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.60706860706861],[44.748780279037916,2.893092527604211,46.512026020713854,0,5.075751091329282,0,0,0,0.641958401095609,0,0.1283916802191218],[0,0.4152583293095123,0,0,0,46.460647030420084,0.27040077257363593,0.19314340898116852,0,0,52.6605504587156]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Villanueva — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-13873. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.