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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Turbaco — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Turbaco / Bolivar · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-13836

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Turbaco / Bolivar
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-4b36c27b229f57cdfdf29a40
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO39.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U21.6%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA13.8%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE13.3%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD6.7%
  • CEDE party code 202300012.9%
  • FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO1.4%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO TODOS SOMOS COLOMBIA1.0%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVA FUERZA DEMOCRATICA0.1%
Results for event-5c56fea1d73c9728d0051123
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Claudia Elena Espinosa Puello18480001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202316,97039.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Maritza Del Carmen Gonzalez Catalan20050002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20239,36321.6%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · German Antonio Gonzalez Hernandez19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20235,98413.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Pedro Romero Rincon20180046colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20235,73713.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Jesus Alberto Medina Guzman20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232,8796.7%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230001 · Julio Cesar Devoz Carrasquilla20230001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231,2382.9%UnknownRecorded
FUERZA CIUDADANA LA FUERZA DEL CAMBIO · Victor Jesus Ardila Duartes20150388colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20236241.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO TODOS SOMOS COLOMBIA · Walberto Marrugo Cervantes20170002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234421%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVA FUERZA DEMOCRATICA · Alberto Anibal Arnedo Marrugo19900002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023260.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA52.3%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO33.4%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO13.8%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO0.3%
  • PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE0.2%
Results for event-1f0194cb672bc0643fe3b262
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO COLOMBIA HUMANA Y UNION PATRIOTICA · Guillermo Enrique Torres Cueter20190033colombia/S67eb704c85/201921,41652.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Leonardo Enrique Cabarcas Marrugo20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/201913,67133.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Maritza Del Carmen Gonzalez Catalan18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20195,63313.8%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Luis German Campo Martinez20050001colombia/S67eb704c85/20191110.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO DE REIVINDICACION ETNICA - PRE · Alberto Anibal Arnedo Marrugo20180004colombia/S67eb704c85/2019930.2%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO33.8%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO29.7%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U19.6%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE10.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS6.1%
Results for event-366642ce1d55fbedc6f84525
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Antonio Victor Alcala Puello20030001colombia/S8164286948/201511,30233.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Juan De Los Reyes Gonzalez Muñoz18480001colombia/S8164286948/20159,94129.7%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Bertha Elena Del Rio Lombana20050002colombia/S8164286948/20156,56219.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Pedro Romero Rincon20130001colombia/S8164286948/20153,60410.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Lauriano Alcala Paredes20130002colombia/S8164286948/20152,0536.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

16.830–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=17.58315419642651, oldest_gap=4.067300221146375, previous_gap=18.92532499266934

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

60.87percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[0,39.22520398492939,21.642049788502877,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,39.13274622656773],[13.764539145733554,0,0,33.40582543250904,0,0,0,0,0.2712344834327045,0,52.5584009383247],[0,29.708325862172018,19.61030422568884,33.77562608331839,10.77042615504154,0,0,6.1353176737792126,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

66.59percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[0,39.22520398492939,21.642049788502877,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,39.13274622656773],[13.764539145733554,0,0,33.40582543250904,0,0,0,0,0.2712344834327045,0,52.5584009383247],[0,29.708325862172018,19.61030422568884,33.77562608331839,10.77042615504154,0,0,6.1353176737792126,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

63.73percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[0,39.22520398492939,21.642049788502877,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,39.13274622656773],[13.764539145733554,0,0,33.40582543250904,0,0,0,0,0.2712344834327045,0,52.5584009383247],[0,29.708325862172018,19.61030422568884,33.77562608331839,10.77042615504154,0,0,6.1353176737792126,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Turbaco — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-13836. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.