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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Soplaviento — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Soplaviento / Bolivar · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-13760

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Soplaviento / Bolivar
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-472c7f6b107e4b03da3923ce
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE49.5%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO46.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS3.4%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD0.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN0.1%
Results for event-2e33d9ba642a8fe76c999e1d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Angel Antonio Orozco Vega20090002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,42149.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Tomas Arturo Daza Avila18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,23946.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Gabriel De Jesus Narvaez Vega20130002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232383.4%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Jaime Edgardo Amor Simancas20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023110.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO DE SALVACION NACIONAL - MSN · Odila Elvis Perez Mendoza19900001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202350.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO55.0%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO43.0%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE1.8%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI0.2%
Results for event-b0da45e47ca4f61f01050a4f
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Ney Durant Bahoque18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,78155%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Jose Enrique Romero Romero18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20192,96043%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Gilberto Enrique Mendoza Castro20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/20191261.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Mario Efrain Carrasquilla Sarmiento19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/2019130.2%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO61.6%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U26.5%
  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO11.9%
Results for event-2969b166d495c21f42cc3d18
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Willington Rafael Romero Zamora18490002colombia/S8164286948/20153,77161.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Nalcy Esther Amor Narvaez20050002colombia/S8164286948/20151,62626.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Wilson Eduardo Sarmiento Sarmiento20030001colombia/S8164286948/201572911.9%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

56.70–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=2.632340179346251, oldest_gap=35.01469147894221, previous_gap=11.933139534883722

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

51.32percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[46.84697714781603,0,0,0,0,49.47931732716228,0,3.442291003760486,0,0,0.23141452126120915],[54.95639534883721,43.02325581395349,0,0,0,1.8313953488372092,0.18895348837209303,0,0,0,0],[61.55729676787463,0,26.542605288932418,11.900097943192948,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

45.04percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[46.84697714781603,0,0,0,0,49.47931732716228,0,3.442291003760486,0,0,0.23141452126120915],[54.95639534883721,43.02325581395349,0,0,0,1.8313953488372092,0.18895348837209303,0,0,0,0],[61.55729676787463,0,26.542605288932418,11.900097943192948,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

48.18percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[46.84697714781603,0,0,0,0,49.47931732716228,0,3.442291003760486,0,0,0.23141452126120915],[54.95639534883721,43.02325581395349,0,0,0,1.8313953488372092,0.18895348837209303,0,0,0,0],[61.55729676787463,0,26.542605288932418,11.900097943192948,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Soplaviento — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-13760. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.