Skip to observatory content

Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Santa Catalina — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Santa Catalina / Bolivar · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-13673

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Santa Catalina / Bolivar
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-2a4835eca8d26c591c1aec8f
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PRIMERO LA GENTE64.8%
  • COALICION POR SANTA CATALINA33.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA1.1%
  • PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD0.2%
  • CEDE party code 202300020.1%
Results for event-b7839e071b4526c335fa1cc4
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PRIMERO LA GENTE · Arnaldo Jose Beltran Fontalvo20070285colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20236,54064.8%UnknownRecorded
COALICION POR SANTA CATALINA · Salomon Castro Cantillo20230869colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,40233.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Jaison Alfonso Brochero De La Hoz19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20231161.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO POLITICO DIGNIDAD · Javier Enrique Ramirez Castro20200001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023210.2%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230002 · Victor Manuel Pardo Pajaro20230002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023100.1%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • COALICION ALCALDIA DE SANTA CATALINA-BOL. PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - "UNIDOS CON EMPRENDIMIENTO POR EL MUNICIPIO QUE ANHELAMOS"98.5%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO0.9%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE0.6%
Results for event-4c920a057a0b6f9d120ff30d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
COALICION ALCALDIA DE SANTA CATALINA-BOL. PARTIDO DE LA U Y PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - "UNIDOS CON EMPRENDIMIENTO POR EL MUNICIPIO QUE ANHELAMOS" · Manuel Polo Simanca20190395colombia/S67eb704c85/20195,16898.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Victor Manuel Pardo Pajaro18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019490.9%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Esperanza Ramirez Varela20180046colombia/S67eb704c85/2019310.6%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO43.3%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U40.5%
  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA15.9%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO0.3%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE0.1%
Results for event-45b149da4997ef85677a8313
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Salomon Castro Cantillo20030001colombia/S8164286948/20152,58343.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Esperanza Ramirez Varela20050002colombia/S8164286948/20152,41740.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Manuel Polo Simanca20090001colombia/S8164286948/201595115.9%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Jairo Ortiz Cervantes20050001colombia/S8164286948/2015170.3%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Carlos Arturo Tovar Morales20090002colombia/S8164286948/201540.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

0 (recorded zero)0–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=31.10318168302112, oldest_gap=2.7796383121232466, previous_gap=97.54192073170731

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[null,[0.9336890243902439,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.06631097560975],[0,0,40.472203616878765,43.25184192900201,0,0.06697923643670463,0,0,0.28466175485599465,0,15.924313462826523]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

84.08percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[null,[0.9336890243902439,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.06631097560975],[0,0,40.472203616878765,43.25184192900201,0,0.06697923643670463,0,0,0.28466175485599465,0,15.924313462826523]]

pedersen volatility

Withheld volatility

Unknownpercentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean · Comparable grouped vectors unavailable for this interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[null,[0.9336890243902439,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.06631097560975],[0,0,40.472203616878765,43.25184192900201,0,0.06697923643670463,0,0,0.28466175485599465,0,15.924313462826523]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Santa Catalina — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-13673. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.