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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

San Fernando — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · San Fernando / Bolivar · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-13650

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
San Fernando / Bolivar
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-3f46ae2432aad1b8b7706675
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO48.5%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U47.4%
  • CREEMOS3.8%
  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO0.2%
  • MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA0.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA0.0%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI0.0%
Results for event-00f83f8fd27c6921864d434d
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Orlando Francisco Ortiz Rangel18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,45048.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Andres Felipe Turizo Lengua20050002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,37147.4%UnknownRecorded
CREEMOS · Maria Angelica Molina Gonzalez20150003colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20232733.8%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · Wilder Lagares Gullozo19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023120.2%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO POLITICO COLOMBIA HUMANA · Juan Carlos Escobar Rangel19690001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202340.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AFROCOLOMBIANA - ADA - MOVIMIENTO ALIANZA DEMOCRATICA AMPLIA · Carlos Alberto Rodriguez Pacheco20180047colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202330%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Benedicto Oliveros Martinez19910006colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202320%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO53.0%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO47.0%
  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE0.1%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES0.0%
Results for event-a1e10a656baccf00fc9a9eed
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Jorge Luis Yepes Morales18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,51453%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Josefina Jimenez Torrecilla18480001colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,11747%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Merizalde Arias Martinez20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/201940.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · Fabian Oliveros Morales20170001colombia/S67eb704c85/201910%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA53.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U46.5%
  • PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO0.2%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO0.1%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI0.1%
Results for event-c25bfaacbf29246791efc7dd
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Felipe Turizo Lobo20090001colombia/S8164286948/20152,79153.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Jorge Luis Yepes Morales20050002colombia/S8164286948/20152,44146.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Manuel Covilla Morales18480001colombia/S8164286948/201590.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Oswaldo Garrido Jimenez18490002colombia/S8164286948/201570.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Urbano Molina Jimenez19910006colombia/S8164286948/201530.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

84.360–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=1.1103302881236772, oldest_gap=6.6653970672252925, previous_gap=5.982519590114521

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

51.5percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[48.489107519325366,0,47.37877723120169,0,0,0,0.028109627547434995,0,0,0,4.10400562192551],[52.95358649789029,46.97106690777577,0,0,0.06027727546714889,0,0,0,0,0,0.015069318866787222],[0.1333079413445058,0.17139592458579317,46.48638354599124,0,0,0,0.05713197486193106,0,0,0,53.15178061321653]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

99.68percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[48.489107519325366,0,47.37877723120169,0,0,0,0.028109627547434995,0,0,0,4.10400562192551],[52.95358649789029,46.97106690777577,0,0,0.06027727546714889,0,0,0,0,0,0.015069318866787222],[0.1333079413445058,0.17139592458579317,46.48638354599124,0,0,0,0.05713197486193106,0,0,0,53.15178061321653]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

75.59percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[48.489107519325366,0,47.37877723120169,0,0,0,0.028109627547434995,0,0,0,4.10400562192551],[52.95358649789029,46.97106690777577,0,0,0.06027727546714889,0,0,0,0,0,0.015069318866787222],[0.1333079413445058,0.17139592458579317,46.48638354599124,0,0,0,0.05713197486193106,0,0,0,53.15178061321653]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “San Fernando — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-13650. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.