Office briefing
Maria La Baja — Mayor
Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.
Colombia · Maria La Baja / Bolivar · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-13442
Read the complete original research briefing
Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.
1. What office, where, and when is the next election?
- Geography
- Maria La Baja / Bolivar
- Next election
- 2027-10-31
- Linked upcoming event
- next-de240181c9cd68fbd5541ffe
- Registry qualification
- Unknown
2. How certain is that date?
2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.
3. Who won earlier selected elections?
2023
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO52.6%
- PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO44.6%
- CEDE party code 202300031.2%
- CEDE party code 202300051.2%
- FUERZA ALTERNATIVA REVOLUCIONARIA DEL COMUN FARC - PARTIDO COMUNES0.5%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · Ramiro Gonzalez Mancilla | 19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 13,709 | 52.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Sergio Alberto Coronel Fuentes | 18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 11,607 | 44.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| CEDE party code 20230003 · Yina Mercedes Garcia Trespalacios | 20230003colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 307 | 1.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| CEDE party code 20230005 · Adalberto Marimon Cardona | 20230005colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 306 | 1.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
| FUERZA ALTERNATIVA REVOLUCIONARIA DEL COMUN FARC - PARTIDO COMUNES · Yimis Acosta Lora | 20170003colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023 | 118 | 0.5% | Unknown | Recorded |
2019
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U30.6%
- PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE29.9%
- PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO19.3%
- MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS14.9%
- PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE4.8%
- PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO0.3%
- PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES0.1%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Raquel Victoria Sierra Cassiani | 20050002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 7,439 | 30.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Ramiro Gonzalez Mancilla | 20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 7,272 | 29.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Maria De Jesus Blanco Jimenez | 20030001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 4,682 | 19.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Gabriel Antonio Pulido Contreras | 20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 3,624 | 14.9% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Ruben Hernando Aguirre Gomez | 20180046colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 1,168 | 4.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Elmer Lecet Julio Paternina | 18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 67 | 0.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · Rafael Antonio Maza | 20170001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019 | 29 | 0.1% | Unknown | Recorded |
2015
Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes
- PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U38.7%
- PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA37.8%
- PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO19.4%
- MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO3.3%
- PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO0.6%
- PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE0.2%
| Label / candidate | Party code | Votes | Share | Seats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Carlos Antonio Coronel Mera | 20050002colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 7,962 | 38.7% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Maria De Jesus Blanco Jimenez | 20090001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 7,761 | 37.8% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Ruben Hernando Aguirre Gomez | 20030001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 3,992 | 19.4% | Unknown | Recorded |
| MOVIMIENTO AUTORIDADES INDIGENAS DE COLOMBIA - AICO · Victor Rafael Ospino Julio | 19910001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 679 | 3.3% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO · Ronal Enrique Olave Trespalacios | 18480001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 121 | 0.6% | Unknown | Recorded |
| PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Fernando Alonso Jaramillo Velez | 20130001colombia/S8164286948/2015 | 41 | 0.2% | Unknown | Recorded |
4. Competition and volatility
competition index
Provisional imported-series CI74.270–100 historical closeness
Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open
Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=8.070027258417475, oldest_gap=0.9778166958552248, previous_gap=0.6877805691693091
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility94.79percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Latest interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[44.56175375283142,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.438246247168586],[0.2759359169721181,0,30.637123676949056,19.282566615872494,29.949343107779747,0,0,14.92525019562621,0,0,4.92978048680038],[0,0.5886359213854836,38.73321657910099,19.420120646040086,0.19945514691574237,0,0,0,0,3.3031718233119283,37.755399883245765]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility44.95percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Previous interval
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[44.56175375283142,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.438246247168586],[0.2759359169721181,0,30.637123676949056,19.282566615872494,29.949343107779747,0,0,14.92525019562621,0,0,4.92978048680038],[0,0.5886359213854836,38.73321657910099,19.420120646040086,0.19945514691574237,0,0,0,0,3.3031718233119283,37.755399883245765]]
pedersen volatility
Provisional volatility69.87percentage points
Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete
Comparison status: Both intervals mean
Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[44.56175375283142,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.438246247168586],[0.2759359169721181,0,30.637123676949056,19.282566615872494,29.949343107779747,0,0,14.92525019562621,0,0,4.92978048680038],[0,0.5886359213854836,38.73321657910099,19.420120646040086,0.19945514691574237,0,0,0,0,3.3031718233119283,37.755399883245765]]
Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.
5. Officeholder evidence
Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.
No officeholder observation supplied.
6. Polling context
No local poll supplied.
National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.
7. Unresolved issues and sources
Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.
Sources
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW · rights unknown
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB · rights unknown
- Colombia: https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2023 alcaldia · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2019 alcaldia · rights unknown
- Colombia: CEDE Colombia 2015 alcaldia · rights unknown
Cite this record
Center for Digital Democracy. “Maria La Baja — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-13442. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.