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Partial researchResearch snapshot 2026-09-13. Evidence gaps remain; see Coverage for requirements.

Office briefing

Barranco De Loba — Mayor

Tracked current office. Identifiers stay separate from display names.

Colombia · Barranco De Loba / Bolivar · municipal · MayorCO-ALC-13074

Read the complete original research briefing

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.

1. What office, where, and when is the next election?

Geography
Barranco De Loba / Bolivar
Next election
2027-10-31
Linked upcoming event
next-850e422b2efd6b6017995c94
Registry qualification
Unknown

2. How certain is that date?

2027-10-31 is expected (not formally called). Day precision. A date without a formal call is not confirmed.

3. Who won earlier selected elections?

2023

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO49.5%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO46.1%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES3.7%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS0.3%
  • INDEPENDIENTES0.2%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U0.2%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI0.0%
  • CEDE party code 202300060.0%
Results for event-791066ce7b9b65298e03c9b5
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
MOVIMIENTO NUEVO LIBERALISMO · Henrique Ballesteros Peinado19790001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20234,24649.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Carlos Mario Ardila Ballestero18490002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233,95846.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA JUSTA LIBRES · Julian Vides Rodriguez20170001colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/20233143.7%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Deogracia Sanchez Mejia20130002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023220.3%UnknownRecorded
INDEPENDIENTES · Uldarico Toloza Tundeno20190087colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023210.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Jose Edilberto Ardila Beleño20050002colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/2023140.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Seudiel Salas Muñoz19910006colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202340%UnknownRecorded
CEDE party code 20230006 · Wilinton Jimenez Toloza20230006colombia/Sdc3a3f1f89/202330%UnknownRecorded

2019

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE54.6%
  • PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO44.3%
  • POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO0.6%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI0.2%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE0.1%
  • PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE0.1%
  • MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS0.0%
Results for event-213d7fab324fdfaf8326b3ce
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CENTRO DEMOCRATICO - MANO FIRME CORAZON GRANDE · Manuel Esteban Ramos Bayter20130001colombia/S67eb704c85/20194,41554.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO · Henrique Ballesteros Peinado18490002colombia/S67eb704c85/20193,58344.3%UnknownRecorded
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO · Aldo Jose Bolaños Feria20050001colombia/S67eb704c85/2019510.6%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE - ASI · Ivan Dario Salas Feria19910006colombia/S67eb704c85/2019130.2%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Eduardo Perez Gomez20090002colombia/S67eb704c85/2019110.1%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO COLOMBIA RENACIENTE · Johanna Victoria Sossa Rodriguez20180046colombia/S67eb704c85/201970.1%UnknownRecorded
MOVIMIENTO ALTERNATIVO INDIGENA Y SOCIAL - MAIS · Victor Manuel Ardila Arias20130002colombia/S67eb704c85/201940%UnknownRecorded

2015

Ordinary · Legal certification not established · list votes

  • PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO54.8%
  • PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U44.5%
  • PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE0.5%
  • PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA0.1%
Results for event-84da38a7d45e93aec7e527d3
Label / candidateParty codeVotesShareSeatsStatus
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL COLOMBIANO · Uldarico Toloza Tundeno20030001colombia/S8164286948/20154,19954.8%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO SOCIAL DE UNIDAD NACIONAL - PARTIDO DE LA U · Armando Rafael Armesto Ardila20050002colombia/S8164286948/20153,40744.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO ALIANZA VERDE · Eugenio Aleman Padilla20090002colombia/S8164286948/2015400.5%UnknownRecorded
PARTIDO OPCION CIUDADANA · Henrique Ballesteros Peinado20090001colombia/S8164286948/2015100.1%UnknownRecorded

4. Competition and volatility

competition index

Provisional imported-series CI

69.320–100 historical closeness

Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open

Method ci.weighted-gap.v1. Inputs: latest_gap=3.3558611046376186, oldest_gap=10.344827586206897, previous_gap=10.291934685799106

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

55.5percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Latest interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Latest interval, vectors=[[46.11978559776276,0,0.1631321370309951,0,0,0,0.04660918200885574,0.2563505010487066,0,0,53.414122582148686],[44.322117763483426,0,0,0,54.61405244928253,0.13607125185551708,0.16081147946561108,0.04948045522018803,0.6308758040573973,0,0.08659079663532905],[0,0,44.50104493207942,54.84587251828631,0,0.522466039707419,0,0,0,0,0.13061650992685475]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

99.78percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Previous interval

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Previous interval, vectors=[[46.11978559776276,0,0.1631321370309951,0,0,0,0.04660918200885574,0.2563505010487066,0,0,53.414122582148686],[44.322117763483426,0,0,0,54.61405244928253,0.13607125185551708,0.16081147946561108,0.04948045522018803,0.6308758040573973,0,0.08659079663532905],[0,0,44.50104493207942,54.84587251828631,0,0.522466039707419,0,0,0,0,0.13061650992685475]]

pedersen volatility

Provisional volatility

77.64percentage points

Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete

Comparison status: Both intervals mean

Method pedersen.grouped.v1. Inputs: groups=["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"], interval=Both intervals mean, vectors=[[46.11978559776276,0,0.1631321370309951,0,0,0,0.04660918200885574,0.2563505010487066,0,0,53.414122582148686],[44.322117763483426,0,0,0,54.61405244928253,0.13607125185551708,0.16081147946561108,0.04948045522018803,0.6308758040573973,0,0.08659079663532905],[0,0,44.50104493207942,54.84587251828631,0,0.522466039707419,0,0,0,0,0.13061650992685475]]

Source-reported control: Unverified. Current tenure requires separate dated evidence.

5. Officeholder evidence

Dated roster observations are not automatically current tenure. The source current-office flag means this office is tracked now, not that the last winner still holds it.

No officeholder observation supplied.

6. Polling context

No local poll supplied.

National context is listed on the polling page. It is not a local forecast.

7. Unresolved issues and sources

Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Six 2023 assemblies remain absent: Amazonas, Guainía, Huila, Risaralda, Vaupés and Vichada. Cali’s 37 JAL boards and dated membership rosters are registered; the national JAL register, three-cycle votes and replacement-event final returns remain incomplete. Twenty mixed-list-type histories, Bogotá and Cali 2015 partial counts and candidate/elected-flag inconsistencies require reconciliation. The national historical portal rejected this browser through security screening. Full legal seat allocation is separate from candidate flags and directory headcounts.

    Sources

    Cite this record

    Center for Digital Democracy. “Barranco De Loba — Mayor.” Subnational Election Observatory, releaselatin-america-fe5e91689def, snapshot 2026-09-13. /electiondatabase/offices/CO-ALC-13074. Sources: colombia--url-44e0af24e3fef22401f2d269, colombia--url-f8cbad13a2c7112410d7a492, colombia--url-142631271ac95a7106b17681, colombia--Sdc3a3f1f89, colombia--S67eb704c85, colombia--S8164286948.